X-Message-Number: 10115 Date: Sat, 25 Jul 1998 09:49:14 -0700 From: Peter Merel <> Subject: Y2K URLs and Replies The range of responses yesterday was pretty representative of what folks are saying in other parts of the net. Many folk feel it's Chicken Little to be worrying about such things now. Many think it's just a software problem that will be fixed before it can occur. Many feel it'll be the cause of some disruption, but nothing that'll knock society off its pins. And many feel it's going to be devastating. I feel you have to make up your mind based on facts. Having described a worst-case, what I'd like to do is develop sufficient understanding of the issues to consider the odds of such events in an informed way. To that end, here's some URLs: http://www.accsyst.com/writers/embedded.htm http://www.businesstoday.com/techpages/y2kindex03.htm http://www.sustainableworld.com/y2kgps/gpsbug.html http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/18.96.html#subj9 http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1163 http://www.cs.nps.navy.mil/people/faculty/mjholden/courses/csr100/Y2Kslides/tsld009.htm -- To specific points: Perry Metzger writes, >Where are you getting all this from? Are you just making it up? Hell no. There's no end of paranoia online - I could cut and paste worse stuff than what I wrote until the cows come home. For example, here's a long page of banking-specific links: http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/results_.cfm/Banking [on electrical disruptions on 1/1/00] >How? Where do you think the average electrical generator stores the date? Check the embedded systems link above. Worth noting that yesterday Sweden announced it is preparing to shut down all its nuclear reactors around 1/1/00 for this reason. In a nutshell, it looks like somewhere between 5% and 20% of the PLCs and control points in the world's electrical generation and distribution facilities may fail. What the cumulative effect will be is unknown. [telecommunications] >SS7 doesn't even have a year field in it. Embedded systems here. PLCs, RTUs, SNMP and CMIP boxes manage all telecoms, and many have vulnerabilities. Many PABXes do too. The installed base is vast, and since we're talking about firware there's nothing to do but replace it. -- Linda Chamberlain writes >Create liquidity (three month s cash on hand, advance payments on >monthly bills, traveler s checks). In the event of a financial crash we might see either dramatic deflation or inflation; so it might be good to also have some gold coins and barter goods at the ready too. And try to get notarized paper records of all your accounts. -- Bob Ettinger writes, > Ways will be found. Human stupidity is formidable, but there are limits. I'd feel a lot more comfortable about this if we had several thousand times more people interested in cryonics than we do right now. If we learn anything from the last few decades' reaction to your vision of emortality for all, it's that where human stupidity is concerned all bets are off. Major stupidities I see going on at the moment are: * Inadequate awareness of the scope of the problem. About scale of resolving the embedded systems issues the US Navy report above says, "Imagine replacing the entire interstate road system ...". * Most management thinks this is a software problem. While software is sure involved, for the most part it's actually a firmware and economic problem. * Inadequate resolve to fix the problem in non-US countries. For example, where most US banks have budgeted $200-$600 million for fixes, a recent survey found that the Japanese banking system _in its entirety_ has allocated less than $300 million to it. * A prevailing attitude in many industries of "fix on failure". * Almost zero recognition of the problems of ripple and synchronicity of failures. For some examples of such snafus, see http://millennia-bcs.com/jonexist.htm * No recognition that most non-US countries have imported technology but not expertise; many have nowhere near the technical wherewithall to do anything about it even if they were properly aware of it. Which they're not. * Most engineers are and would rather be developing new systems than testing and replacing legacy firmware. >a power company could [instead of] computer-controlled decisions [...] >make hourly decisions based on averages. Sure it could, if it could find and replace each dud PLC in its distribution network. > [government and business should] just send out average payments to >the usual people for a while. And so on and on. Calm and common sense. I sure wish I lived on a planet where calm and common sense were the usual response to mass economic disruption. Unfortunately, the only examples of mass economic disruption history teaches me speak of great panic and irrationality. If you can think of good reasons why this time will be an exception to this I'll be very much relieved! [a bank run early to mid 1999] >Early 1999 is only around 6 months away. One obvious recourse for >the depositor is to ascertain, very soon, whether his own bank is >internally vulnerable to the y2k problem. Bank runs don't come from the y2k problem itself; they come from the preparations that folk will make to ensure their liquidity over y2k. Linda Chamberlain described these - they begin with "take out 2-3 months cash". When everyone does that at once the supply of banknotes dries up and panic and domino effects do the rest. Just when this happens depends on when people start to worry about it happening - I've already seen newspaper reports on it, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it early 1999. Given the stupid human tendency to go from apathy to panic overnight mid 1999 seems more likely to me. Peter Merel. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=10115