X-Message-Number: 10137
From: "Scott Badger" <>
Subject: Re: What is the real Y2K threat?
Date: Wed, 29 Jul 1998 09:01:32 -0500

I agree with Thomas Donaldson

>As of this instant, it's not clear to me that either the panickers
>or the nonpanickers have fully made their case. So more data please.
>PLEASE!!!!

I have read quotes from allegedly respectable economists, however, that
predict a global recession as a result of the Y2K problem.  The greatest
concern seems to be with countries other than the United States who have
purchased the technology but not the technological expertise to handle the
bug.  Basic services in these countries are more likely to be seriously
disrupted than in the U.S. but it's hard to believe we won't feel the blast
of the economic shockwave that follows.

My greatest concern in the U.S. is the media.  Much will depend on how the
media chooses to cover this issue as the time approaches.  I worry that they
will spread the same message that Thomas and I have already been getting:

"It is difficult to know how serious the impact of the Y2K bug will be."

The meida will be happy to tell us about some of the worst case scenarios,
though.  A certain percentage of the population with a predisposition for
paranoia (perhaps not misplaced here) will listen to the media and  will
discount the reassurances of their bankers, brokers, etc.   They will react
by liquidating their assets and removing them from the banks JUST IN CASE.
That's not exactly an unprudent action given the uncertainty of this
situation.  Then the media starts reporting on the lower bank reserves and
the selling spree on the stock market, and away we go.  On January 2, 2000
we may find that the sky did not in fact fall but much damage may have
already been done by then.  Indeed, I doubt that the media will let us rest
even then, insisting that many problems won't appear right away.  They'll
keep it going as long as they can keep the ratings up.

The truth is there have been plenty of non-issues that the media has turned
into BIG issues, just as there have been many big issues that the media has
reduced to non-issues.  What will make this so appealing for the media is
that it's not an event that reporters just go out and report on; this is a
mystery.  They'll find infinite sources to support both sides of the issue
to keep the masses guessing and tuning in for more data.  I can almost hear
them licking their chops.

The upside, of course, is that it will be a time of opportunity for some.

Long life to all,

Scott Badger

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=10137