X-Message-Number: 10166
Date: Sun, 02 Aug 1998 08:40:54 -0700
From: Peter Merel <>
Subject: Y1999 Dates Of Doom

Jeffrey Soreff speculates that a long term LN disruption is beyond the
ability of an org to withstand. I wonder whether a photovoltaic generator
could be made to power a compressor to make LN on the spot? I know PV
generators have become quite affordable in recent years, but haven't
the foggiest (:-) about LN compressors. Anyone know if such a thing
could be afforded by orgs?

Bob Ettinger asks why the whistle hasn't been blown by staff worried about
y2k. I'd suggest it's because there's nothing in it for them - they'd risk
their jobs and get no reward for it. I've spoken to a few people at one of
the places I consult to about the trouble, and the prevailing opinion I
encounter is fix-on-failure: "oh, we expect to spend most of 2000 fixing
manufacturing hiccups. No big deal, we do that all the time." And many
managers, believe it or not, are simply unaware of the embedded systems
side of this: "you think it'll affect us? I wonder what I should do about
my stock options". These are real comments from real middle managers.

As to the newspapers themselves, the journos just have no conception of
the severity of this problem. Even if they did, what's it good for? Papers
get sold on suffering, not speculation. Who's suffering now? Eventually 
they'll start to sell the paranoia side of this - but they can't do that 
until it's already past time to be paranoid.

To try and clarify what we can expect, here's some Dates Of Doom. Perhaps
our little band of pollyannas and cassandras can try to attach some
probabilities to each:

1/1/99:    many spreadsheets and other financial models start juggling OO's
4/1/99:    fiscal y2k in Japan, Canada and New York State
4/6/99:    fiscal y2k in England and Germany
7/1/99:    46 US states start fiscal y2k
8/22/99:   GPS rollover day
10/1/99:   US federal government starts fiscal y2k
1/1/00:    embedded systems all over the world fail
2/29/00:   is a leap day after all. Many leap calculations get this wrong.
Before 00: global runs on the banks?
After 00:  world war 3? China and India starve? Christ arrives, sees his
           shadow, and goes back to bed for another two millenia? You tell me.

Peter Merel.

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