X-Message-Number: 10341
Date: Fri, 28 Aug 1998 15:00:16 -0400
From: Brook Norton <>
Subject: RE: Near certainty of success of cryonics

Jeff Davis in msg 10333 says that cryonics success is nearly certain,
seeing as we have millions of years to work out the bugs.  It is true,
barring total self-destruction, that the technology is a near certainty
over the course of millions of years.  However, the odds of remaining
frozen that long are a very different thing.

I put together a spreadsheet some years ago to bookkeep these odds.  You
input stuff like odds of a fire, financial collapse, etc. for proceeding 20
yr intervals.  The odds of remaining frozen approach nil in two hundred
years (and go below 50/50 for my inputs in only 30 years!).  So the
chanllenge is to get the technology as soon as possible.  You're too
vulnerable while frozen.

Anyone who would like a copy of the spreadsheet can contact me at
 and I'll e-mail it to you.  I hope to have it
on a web page where you can fill out the inputs on-line, sometime next


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