X-Message-Number: 10341 Date: Fri, 28 Aug 1998 15:00:16 -0400 From: Brook Norton <> Subject: RE: Near certainty of success of cryonics Jeff Davis in msg 10333 says that cryonics success is nearly certain, seeing as we have millions of years to work out the bugs. It is true, barring total self-destruction, that the technology is a near certainty over the course of millions of years. However, the odds of remaining frozen that long are a very different thing. I put together a spreadsheet some years ago to bookkeep these odds. You input stuff like odds of a fire, financial collapse, etc. for proceeding 20 yr intervals. The odds of remaining frozen approach nil in two hundred years (and go below 50/50 for my inputs in only 30 years!). So the chanllenge is to get the technology as soon as possible. You're too vulnerable while frozen. Anyone who would like a copy of the spreadsheet can contact me at and I'll e-mail it to you. I hope to have it on a web page where you can fill out the inputs on-line, sometime next year. Brook Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=10341