X-Message-Number: 10346
Date: Sat, 29 Aug 1998 13:12:02 EDT
Subject: revival time estimates

I thought I had posted a couple of comments on Jeff Davis' #10333 "Near
certainty of success of cryonics," but apparently only sent the addendum. 

First, Arthur Rowe's notorious sound bite about reviving a frozen person being
as difficult as turning hamburger back into a cow: As I have pointed out
before, this is a plain and conscious lie. Many lower animals have been
revived after freezing, none after grinding.

As to far-future revival, practical considerations at minimum obviously
intervene here. But Frank Tipler (The Physics of Immortality, Doubleday,
1994)presents evidence that, near the end of (proper)time, billions of years
in the future, there will still remain infinite subjective time, and computing
power and storage will become infinite, and every person who ever lived (or
might have lived!)will be resurrected as an emulation, without regard to
preservation of your original material. 

If you don't insist on resurrection of your precise quantum state, but will
settle for an accurate personality profile (and if you believe a duplicate
or/and a simulation would be you), then Tipler and Moravec think this might be
achievable in as little as a few thousand years. Again, no need to bother
saving your remains.

On the other hand, Gary Feinberg (former chairman of the physics department,
Columbia U., an early proponent of cryonics, now dust) estimated that any
project (on a human scale) that we could now imagine would become feasible
within 200 years. This would certainly include reviving frozen people.

Further, some estimate that the Singularity (explosion of progress after we
have intelligent computers and nanotech etc) may come as early as 20-50 years
from now.

Take your pick. But for prudence, Praise the Omega Point and pass the ice

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society

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