X-Message-Number: 10525
From: 
Date: Sun, 4 Oct 1998 12:01:01 EDT
Subject: more on optimism etc

I suspect some will take issue with George Smith's statement that "You can't
prove a negative." That statement, if taken completely literally, is not
correct. In math, for example, one can often and easily prove a negative. In
physics, a whole book recently appeared--IMPOSSIBILITY, by astronomer John
Barrow--on the theme of "The Limits of Science and the Science of Limits." 

All that Barrow actually shows, of course--and all that anyone can now prove
about the physical universe--is that, based on current experience and a
reasonable interpretation thereof, some things appear extremely unlikely or
even ruled out.

The catch--and that is Mr. Smith's point--is that, in addition to acknowledged
gaps in information, "It aint what you don't know [that will bite you in the
butt], but what you know that aint so." 

For a bit of perspective, it may help to recall that, just centuries ago
(augenblick in historic time), ALMOST ALL of the physical universe was totally
unknown and unsuspected. Not only didn't we know that stars are suns and that
the solar system is only a tiny fraction of creation, but we didn't know that
radiation existed beyond the visible spectrum, that there is such a thing as
electricity, that understandable microscopic mechanisms govern the functioning
of our  bodies, etc., etc.

Very possibly, almost all is still unknown. The road behind is long; the road
ahead may be vastly longer.  To think otherwise, Mr. Smith suggests, is
hubris. I suggest it isn't even hubris--it's just ignorance or stupidity.

And again the reminder: Neither Mr. Smith nor I nor anyone I know suggests we
should passively wait for someone or something to save us. We do the most and
the best we can with what we have. Rally 'round the flag, boys.

As for unreasonable optimism, for my part, I recognize even the possibility
that we have ALREADY lost our fight--there may be no such thing as survival
beyond the moment; the "philosophical" problems have not been solved. Or some
other black hole may swallow us. In one of Heinlein's books, a time traveler
encountered advanced beings whose dominant characteristic was "...a  sense of
tragedy, of grief insupportable and unescapable, of  infinite weariness.....He
[the human] had been flicked with  emotions many times too strong for his
spiritual fiber and which he was no more fitted to experience than an oyster
is to play the violin." At some advanced level, we may discover the essential
blackness of being.

Or some prosaic doom may lie in wait. For whatever reasons, perhaps every
civilization slightly in advance of ours destroys itself. (Grey goo?) This
would explain the absence of advanced aliens visiting us.

Nevertheless, if you are pessismistic and wrong, you have been needlessly
gloomy. If you are optimistic and wrong, at least you felt better most of the
time. It isn't always easy, but usually you can choose whether to be cheerful
or gloomy--without compromising the need for prudent and positive action.

At the most practical level--the probability of revival of current
patients--my reasons for optimism are spelled out in considerable detail on
our web site.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

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