X-Message-Number: 12247 From: "George Smith" <> Subject: Further on "If we don't do it, who will?" Date: Thu, 12 Aug 1999 13:26:32 -0700 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_009E_01BEE4C6.4B64B020 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Private email feedback on my Message #12239 yesterday (which may or may not have been posted yet to the Cryonet - there was no indication made in what I received) included the suggestion from the writer that very little "organ cryopreservation" is being done by anyone outside cryonics circles and that when it comes to "brain cryopreservation" there is virtually no research at all. So, basically, WE have to do the research or it will not happen. This thinking misses my entire point. The current organ transplant-surgery industry WILL research and drive and apply the use of the new Nano-computer to make more money. Freezing isn't the issue. It isn't important what we do NOW with "organ cryopreservation" research. The medical industry develops new technologies in the areas in which they make the most money. Transplanting organs is one such area. (How much does it cost for a new heart?) Brain trauma healing is another. (How much does a brain surgeon make in an hour?) Organ cryopreservation is not the issue. Current big business in medicine is. Consider, how can we NOT benefit from their inevitable successes in these areas? If I can repair a comatose auto accident victim, if I can develop and use nano-sized devices to diagnose and repair still-breathing patients, it isn't difficult to see how applying these advances to cryonics will be accomplished since restoring a damaged brain to normal functioning is the primary issue. Freezing damage is just another form of trauma. Again, I am discussing the big picture, not merely the classical cryonics perspective which has included the all-too-seldom challenged assumption of "if we don't do it, who will?". Sorry, but I think that when all is said and done, current cryonics research will have proven to have been a waste of time, like trying to build a television set with finger-paints. AFTER the huge medical giants have researched and developed the nano breakthroughs, THEN we will need to APPLY these developments to cryonics. At that point research will be necessary as we cannot assume the medical industry will ever support research into cryonics. THEN we will need to roll up our sleeves and "do it ourselves". Nevertheless, the horse needs to be in front of the cart. Nothing I say will divert those who are already dedicated to their research efforts. And who knows, maybe they will make the breakthroughs before the industry giants with their billions do so. It is possible. Just highly unlikely. Sometimes you do win the lotto despite the odds. I just don't see the point when it is certain that any breakthroughs will come in short order from the huge medical technology giants anyway. Those of you dedicated to research at this primitive stage can do so, but I can't help but feel that this is a waste of time and money. It strikes me as being no different than deciding that I will try to create the first successful fusion power generator. Maybe I will succeed. But it is far, far more probable that others who have huge resources and billions of dollars will do it first. And, if it will be done at all, they WILL do it sooner or later anyway. My efforts will have been unnecessary and most probably a complete waste of my time. I am speaking here to the rest of the cryonics community apart from those with dedicated research intentions and simply pointing out that one of the largest research industries in the world (medical technology) will certainly pursue the development of nanotechnology for medical applications. And it is almost certain that THEY will accomplish what WE need BEFORE any of us with our relatively miniscule funding and resources will do so. Don't confuse heroic fantasies with real world realities. Big Business will make it happen. Nanotechnology applications to specific cryonics concerns will THEN require R&D but only AFTER we have the tools developed by the Big Boys of medical technology to work with to do it. And, I contend, THEY WILL DO IT. They already do it. It is profitable for them to do it. It is what they do. Isn't this obvious to everyone? One other piece of feedback I received suggested that failing to pursue our own current research efforts would result in "cryonics not existing at all". Nonsense. Cryonics already exists. It is BASED upon an optimistic anticipation of FUTURE advances in science which will restore those patients who have been frozen. Remove the optimism and it isn't cryonics. Remove the reliance upon the technology we await and it isn't cryonics. And, my entire point is, that we should be strictly honest with ourselves and realize that our current efforts at research will almost certainly be bypassed as the multi-billion dollar modern medical research industry applies the Nano-computer to its ends which will happily dovetail with our own. You can commit to current research, but it seems too soon to be useful. Others with more money and resources will get there first almost certainly. THEN it is time to get to work when we have the necessary tools to work WITH. Don't try and repair your car without the tools you need. It might work but usually doesn't. We are ahead of ourselves. And that's okay. It isn't really a problem because we will be bypassed by those with more money and resources. What IS important is that we stop pretending that "If we don't do it, who will?", which is pessimistic nonsense. Either cryonics will succeed or it won't. If it can, it will. Why? Because people with Big Bucks will develop the technology which we will be able to use to make cryonics succeed. The most important event of the 20th century was the announcement of the Nano-computer. From that moment forward the social forces of human nature make the success of cryonics inevitable. Therefore I respectfully disagree with the need for our personal pursuit of current research as redundant and wasteful, and that the belief that we must pursue current research to succeed at all to be short-sighted, pessimistic and misleading. I also remain open to correction. Best wishes, George Smith http://www.cryonics.org ------=_NextPart_000_009E_01BEE4C6.4B64B020 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type> <META content="MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=#ffffff> <DIV>Private email feedback on my Message #12239 yesterday (which may or may not have been posted yet to the Cryonet - there was no indication made in what I received) included the suggestion from the writer that very little "organ cryopreservation" is being done by anyone outside cryonics circles and that when it comes to "brain cryopreservation" there is virtually no research at all. So, basically, WE have to do the research or it will not happen.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This thinking misses my entire point.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The current organ transplant-surgery industry WILL research and drive and apply the use of the new Nano-computer to make more money.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Freezing isn't the issue. It isn't important what we do NOW with "organ cryopreservation" research.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The medical industry develops new technologies in the areas in which they make the most money. Transplanting organs is one such area. (How much does it cost for a new heart?) Brain trauma healing is another. (How much does a brain surgeon make in an hour?)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Organ cryopreservation is not the issue. Current big business in medicine is.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Consider, how can we NOT benefit from their inevitable successes in these areas? If I can repair a comatose auto accident victim, if I can develop and use nano-sized devices to diagnose and repair still-breathing patients, it isn't difficult to see how applying these advances to cryonics will be accomplished since restoring a damaged brain to normal functioning is the primary issue. Freezing damage is just another form of trauma. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Again, I am discussing the big picture, not merely the classical cryonics perspective which has included the all-too-seldom challenged assumption of "if we don't do it, who will?".</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Sorry, but I think that when all is said and done, current cryonics research will have proven to have been a waste of time, like trying to build a television set with finger-paints. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>AFTER the huge medical giants have researched and developed the nano breakthroughs, THEN we will need to APPLY these developments to cryonics. At that point research will be necessary as we cannot assume the medical industry will ever support research into cryonics. THEN we will need to roll up our sleeves and "do it ourselves".</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Nevertheless, the horse needs to be in front of the cart. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Nothing I say will divert those who are already dedicated to their research efforts. And who knows, maybe they will make the breakthroughs before the industry giants with their billions do so. It is possible. Just highly unlikely. Sometimes you do win the lotto despite the odds. I just don't see the point when it is certain that any breakthroughs will come in short order from the huge medical technology giants anyway. Those of you dedicated to research at this primitive stage can do so, but I can't help but feel that this is a waste of time and money. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>It strikes me as being no different than deciding that I will try to create the first successful fusion power generator. Maybe I will succeed. But it is far, far more probable that others who have huge resources and billions of dollars will do it first. And, if it will be done at all, they WILL do it sooner or later anyway. My efforts will have been unnecessary and most probably a complete waste of my time.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I am speaking here to the rest of the cryonics community apart from those with dedicated research intentions and simply pointing out that one of the largest research industries in the world (medical technology) will certainly pursue the development of nanotechnology for medical applications. And it is almost certain that THEY will accomplish what WE need BEFORE any of us with our relatively miniscule funding and resources will do so.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Don't confuse heroic fantasies with real world realities. Big Business will make it happen.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Nanotechnology applications to specific cryonics concerns will THEN require R&D but only AFTER we have the tools developed by the Big Boys of medical technology to work with to do it. And, I contend, THEY WILL DO IT. They already do it. It is profitable for them to do it. It is what they do.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Isn't this obvious to everyone?</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One other piece of feedback I received suggested that failing to pursue our own current research efforts would result in "cryonics not existing at all".</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Nonsense.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Cryonics already exists. It is BASED upon an optimistic anticipation of FUTURE advances in science which will restore those patients who have been frozen.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Remove the optimism and it isn't cryonics.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Remove the reliance upon the technology we await and it isn't cryonics.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>And, my entire point is, that we should be strictly honest with ourselves and realize that our current efforts at research will almost certainly be bypassed as the multi-billion dollar modern medical research industry applies the Nano-computer to its ends which will happily dovetail with our own.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>You can commit to current research, but it seems too soon to be useful. Others with more money and resources will get there first almost certainly. THEN it is time to get to work when we have the necessary tools to work WITH. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Don't try and repair your car without the tools you need. It might work but usually doesn't.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>We are ahead of ourselves. And that's okay.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>It isn't really a problem because we will be bypassed by those with more money and resources. What IS important is that we stop pretending that "If we don't do it, who will?", which is pessimistic nonsense.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Either cryonics will succeed or it won't.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>If it can, it will.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Why?</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Because people with Big Bucks will develop the technology which we will be able to use to make cryonics succeed.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>The most important event of the 20th century was the announcement of the Nano-computer.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>From that moment forward the social forces of human nature make the success of cryonics inevitable. </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Therefore I respectfully disagree with the need for our personal pursuit of current research as redundant and wasteful, and that the belief that we must pursue current research to succeed at all to be short-sighted, pessimistic and misleading.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I also remain open to correction.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Best wishes,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>George Smith</DIV> <DIV><A href="http://www.cryonics.org">http://www.cryonics.org</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV></BODY></HTML> ------=_NextPart_000_009E_01BEE4C6.4B64B020-- Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=12247