X-Message-Number: 12704
From: "George Smith" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #12694 Stock markets and the future.
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 1999 14:06:30 -0800

John de Rivaz (in message # 12694) wondered if stock markets will be
supplanted by other capital sources for developing technology in the future.
I would suggest that as long as money is required, there will be speculators
(read: investors) who will want to profit.  The stock market merely enables
these ventures.

If, as now seems inevitable since July 20th's monumental nano-computer
breakthrough, molecular nanotechnology will be developed, wealth will become
the norm through technology until (as I have detailed in past posts) money
becomes no longer necessary, and hence ceases to exist in any form.

I smile sometimes at the assumptions I read that this new technology will
continue to develop as slowly as previous "bulk" technologies.  As has been
outlined in Drexler's books already, when we get to ignition point, the
breakthroughs will spread like wildfire.  If we survive the dangers at all,
it will be totally unlike anything which has happened before.

But when that "ignition point" will happen remains the open question.

In the meantime, I look to those who have been the most successful in
predicting future events thus far for guidance on what to most probably
expect in the future to come.

The most successful modern prognosticator of the stock market remains Harry
Dent (The Roaring 2000's is his most recent offering).  For about 20 years
he has successfully outlined most major trends in economics by gauging the
influence of population demographics.  He expects the DOW to expand to
35,000 by 2008, followed by our deepest depression in 200 years.

The best overall social-technological prognosticators remain Lord Reeg-Moss
and James Davidson (Blood In The Streets, The Great Reckoning, and The
Sovereign Individual).  Their list of accurate hits include the fall of
communism and the rise of the U.S. service economy.  They now predict the
break-up of the centralized nation states (the U.S. being the last to go)
and mention how government will have to treat the taxpayer as a customer.

Well, in this morning's newspaper, today's successful tax revolt in
Washington state, Initiative-695, was the headline news.  Now any taxes,
licences or fees increases must first be approved by popular vote.  The
creator of this initiative, Tim Eyman said, "Now, thanks to I-695, the
government is going to have to treat taxpayers like customers."

Not a coincidence.

Reeg-Moss and Davidson base their macro-historical theory on the control of
violent force by social entities, such as governments.  Because of the
difficulty internet commerce will increasingly pose for tax collection, the
large nation-states are doomed and there will be increasing freedom for
individuals.  There is far too simplistic, but catches much of their theme.

I strongly recommend reading both Dent's most recent book (The Roaring
2000's) as well as Reeg-Moss & Davidson's most recent book (The Sovereign
Individual).  None of these authors are at all good at short-term
predictions (will the DOW be up or down tomorrow?) but have proven to be
remarkably accurate in examining the big picture of world events and future
trends.

Listen to the winners.

George Smith
www.cryonics.org

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