X-Message-Number: 12739
From: 
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 08:15:18 EST
Subject: Reasons for pessimism, and optimism too

On Sunday, Nov,7 Charles Platt wrote: (Message #12728)

>I conclude that there are so many imponderables and unforeseeable 
>problems and variables, no grounds for optimism exist. On the other hand, 
>the same argument could be used to conclude that no grounds for pessimism 
>exist. We simply do not, and cannot, know what will be possible or when.

IMHO, there's more grounds for optimism in the long run. Given that even 
"blind" evolution created human intellect, there's good chances that this 
intellect will somehow create a superior form of itself. We can't really say 
how this will be done, but its seems very likely in the long run 
(centuries?). Theoretically, vitrified brains could be probably stored for 
that long @ ~-140C. 

     However, in the short run I see more reasons for pessimism (realism?) in 
cryonics. First, contrary to what optimists think, there's probably real 
information loss even in ideal-case cryonic cases with current suspension 
protocols. And the brains are so badly damaged that the possibility of 
biological revival seems remote.
Also, as has been pointed out by Mike Darwin recently, in a majority of 
cryonic cases there's sudden death or brain damage, like stroke or heart 
attack with subsequent autholysis and/or autopsy. Most people simply won't 
get a chance.
     
     Ideally, there should be "at will" clause for the cryonic suspension, 
when a person can make a decision to enter cryonic suspension while his brain 
is not yet destroyed by at least chronic disease. However, given that 
possibility of revival from vitrification of even the simplest organs has not 
yet been convincingly demonstrated, there's no chance for legalization of 
such procedure. It may take a relatively long time (decades?) to show 
reversible brain cryopreservation, and from there may take another decade(s?) 
to pass such legislation, if at all. I'm bluntly pessimistic on FDA and US 
Congress-period. More, now even the mainstream media entertains the idea of 
violent dissolution of US in the next 50 years (e.g. J. Daliden The American 
Dream-can it survive 21 Century?, 1999.) One can only guess what it will do 
for the cryonic patients 

Alex Berg

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