X-Message-Number: 12744
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: future depression?
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 1999 17:20:44 -0000

A big depression has existed in the computer industry for the last two or
three decades.

If in 1970 you advised IBM's accountants of the power of a 450Mhz Pentium
III with 128k RAM and said that such machines were being built and sold for
sums of ther order of $500 by the year 2000, they would think that the
industry was due to be teetering on the edge of collapse by the end of the
century.

If in 1970 you told a furniture manufacturer of the cost of a sofa 30 years
on, they would probably rub their hands with glee and expect their
descendants to be the richest men on Earth. After all, the materials that
make up a sofa are very simple and unlikely ever to be in short supply.

Of course with hindsight we know the truth - industries and professions
which inflate their prices go into decline, those who deflate their prices
open up new markets and steal customers from the inflationary dinosaurs,
even if they are in a completely different sector.

Here in the UK many famous names in traditional industries are facing very
serious financial declines. Everyone has heard of Marks and Spencer, but
they are now a lame duck. The problem is that households have found other
thing to spend their money on besides filling large wardrobes or frequent
changes of domestic decor. The very products of the deflationary spiral in
the computer sector have displaced expenditure in traditional sectors. Apart
from actual computers, the sector is creating entirely new markets. Mobile
telephone, digital delevision and so on. All these things thrive on
deflation. Would the mobile telephone be so popular if they still cost
$3,000 and a fortune to run? Will digital television catch on if sets always
cost $1,500 or more and $400/yr to run? (UK figures converted to $)

A recent new broadcast revealed that the high street betting shops are
ceasing to be profitable and face collapse because of on line gaming. Also,
the competition isn't only for the customer's money. The customer's time is
a limited resource.

These changes are only going to accelerate in the future.

--
Sincerely, John de Rivaz
my homepage links to Longevity Report, Fractal Report, my singles club for
people in Cornwall, music, Inventors' report, an autobio and various other
projects:       http://geocities.yahoo.com/longevityrpt

From: david pizer <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #12708 - #12717
> If we do have this big depression, a million might be worth a million
again.

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