X-Message-Number: 13772
Date: Wed, 24 May 2000 10:29:27 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: why we don't NEED lots of people

To Dave Pizer:

Will cryonics die out if we completely conquer aging? I have never 
believed that, and have some points to make on that thesis.

1. Although aging is NOW our main cause of death and illness, that
   is only the result of our medicine dealing with many other problems
   which would otherwise kill most of us around age 50 or so.

   Not only will we still suffer accidents, but those accidents may well
   involve technologies we do not now have. Think of the novelty of 
   radiation accidents when people were just learning about nuclear
   power --- and even now, in cases in which the guards against radiation
   weren't good enough. And think, too, about just how many new biological
   problems will arise when we really start changing human genes --- it's
   not that we'll do anything fundamentally wrong in making such genetic
   changes, it's just that there will ALWAYS be accidents and mistakes.

2. My interest in living longer will not vanish once I know for sure
   that I will not age. If anything it will INCREASE, so that lifespans
   which once may have seemed quite long will at least risk shortening
   by events which we now ignore because they look so improbable. 

   This point doesn't just come from my own introspection. I will point
   out that current lifespans in the US are now longer than ever before,
   long enough that dying at about 50 (which most people in Europe and
   even the US did only 300 years ago) would seem a heavy imposition,
   while beforehand it was generally accepted (other than by a few 
   radicals). If we come to believe that we'll live for 2000 years,
   then anything which might cut our lifespans to only 1000 years
   will become something we want to take steps against, however we
   can.

3. The number of people required to keep suspendees in suspension
   does not increase as rapidly as the number of suspendees. Although
   research may take much longer than if more people engaged in it,
   only a few people will eventually work out how to revive all those
   who can be revived. This becomes even stronger if those few people
   themselves can expect to live much longer than 100 years. In short,
   so long as we don't run into ACTIVE OPPOSITION, even a small group
   of cryonicists will eventually win out. Sure, it will take much
   longer, but then what is 200 years if you expect to live afterwards
   for thousands?

   As for active opposition, that IS a problem (though so far it has
   been only a few ununited places and people). I will point out that
   wiping out cryonics, especially after we can travel to the planets,
   becomes much harder than wiping out cryonics AT A GIVEN LOCATION. 
   It's reasonable to think that there will ALWAYS be a place to go
   and bring those in suspension.

So we should not conclude that because we remain small our suspensions
will inevitably fail. I will add here that I, too, would like there
to be many more cryonicists, and think we should work to increase our
rate of growth. But we should not conclude that if our rate of growth
remains small, we must inevitably fail.

			Best and long long life to all,

				Thomas Donaldson

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