X-Message-Number: 13982 Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 13:39:00 -0400 From: "J. Hughes" <> Subject: Life expectancy rising The absurdity of simple extrapolative models.... Life Expectancy Said Rising Faster Updated 2:00 PM ET June 14, 2000 By ALEX DOMINGUEZ, Associated Press Writer Life expectancy in major industrialized nations is increasing faster than their governments are predicting, which could strain pension plans and other programs in those countries, a U.S. researcher says. If residents live as long as the researchers predict, it will push the "dependency ratio" - the ratio of those over 65 to working people - from 6 percent higher in Britain to 40 percent higher in Japan by 2050. The dependency ratio in the United States is now .22 residents over age 65 to every resident age 20 to 64, and should increase to nearly .40 by 2050, said researcher Shripad Tuljapurkar. Life expectancy estimates are important for governments trying to determine how much money to set aside for pensions, health programs and other social spending for the aged. Tuljapurkar and his colleagues graphed death rates over the past half century in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Britain, and developed a mathematical model to extend the curve into the future. The study was prepared by the Los Altos, Calif.-based Mountain View Research firm Tuljapurkar heads. It was published in Thursday's issue of the journal Nature. Gregory Spencer, chief of the population projections branch for the U.S. Census Bureau, said the Mountain View researchers compared their estimates to U.S. projections that have since been updated. The previous U.S. Census estimate for life expectancy for Americans born in 2050 was 80.45 years. The current U.S. estimate for 2050 is 83.9 years, compared with 82.91 years projected by Mountain View. The greatest discrepancy was in Japan, where the researchers predicted life expectancy would be 90.91 years for those born in 2050, compared with the official government estimate of 82.85 years. The researchers estimated Canadians born in 2050 would live 85.26 years, compared with the 81.67 years estimated by the government. In Britain, the difference was 83.79 years to 82.5; in France it was 87.01 to 83.5; in Germany, 83.12 to 81.5; and in Italy, 86.26 to 82.5. Tuljapurkar acknowledged some countries may have updated their life expectancy estimates since he collected the data used in the study. Carl Haub, a demographer with the Washington-based Population Reference Bureau, said many countries are coming to the realization that life expectancy estimates will have to be revised upward. "There has been a hesitancy to raise life expectancy values to a more than traditional level, which usually has been about 85," Haub said. "Now, there's a recognition that you may have to." Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=13982