X-Message-Number: 14417
From: 
Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2000 13:48:31 EDT
Subject: guesswork

In message #14414, 4 Sep., Paul Wakfer referred to a previous estimate, about 
two years ago (I think by 21CM people) of 10 years and $10 million to achieve 
perfected whole brain suspended animation (of a dog, I believe), and I 
believe Paul endorsed that estimate and used it enthusiastically in trying to 
get pledges for the Prometheus Project. 

In message #14280, 16 Aug., Paul estimated 10-15 years and $100 million or 
less for "perfected vitrification."

In the 4 Sep. message he also says that the two-year ago estimate added 
another 10 years and another $10 million to go from whole dog head to whole 
body, or a total of 20 years and $20 million for perfected human whole body 
suspended animation.

Well, obviously 15 years and $100 million for perfected vitrification is not 
very consistent with 20 years and $20 million for perfected whole body 
suspended animation. 

Naturally, I realize that opinions can change, and guesstimates are only 
guesstimates (more like wild guesses, really), and that a fund raiser may 
perhaps be forgiven a bit of enthusiasm, but not a few people on the Cryonet 
list seem to take seriously the quantitative opinions expressed by people 
they consider authoritative--more or less as the general public takes 
seriously the totally off-the-wall and unfounded statements (not even a 
pretense of a calculation) of "authoritative" cryobiologists that the chances 
of reviving our current patients are zero or close to it. 
  
Greg Fahy--perhaps the most authoritative in the field--thought perfected 
vitrification for kidneys was "around the corner" ten years or so ago. 

For that matter, when I wrote my first book in 1962--almost 40 years ago--a 
few optimistic cryobiologists were predicting suspended animation within 10 
years--given increased funding and focus. I guess 10 years is a convenient 
number, and more funding is always nice. 

Does any of this matter? Yes. Strategic errors can be fatal to individuals 
and damaging to populations. 

My recommendation, once more, is that everyone use his best judgment to 
maximize his own chances and those of his family. Age, health, and financial 
circumstances all enter into it, as well as guesses about the relative 
importance of various kinds of research, organizational growth and 
development, and your own activity. You can put your eggs in one basket, or 
spread it around. 

You simply don't know when, or at what cost, success in suspended animation 
will come. You do know that you have a non-negligible chance of dying within 
the next decade or two--if not sooner--and that a very modest investment will 
buy you cryopreservation, and that EVENTUAL success in reviving most or all 
patients has extensive and detailed reasoning behind it. 

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
http://www.cryonics.org

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