X-Message-Number: 15359
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: "Scientists Bet Half-A-Billion On 150-Year Lifespan"
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2001 18:35:44 -0800

From:

http://unisci.com/stories/20011/0112016.htm

Scientists Bet Half-A-Billion On 150-Year Lifespan

Researchers S. Jay Olshansky of the University of Illinois at Chicago School 
of Public Health and Steven Austad of the University of Idaho have a $500 
million bet riding on who has the most accurate scientific view of aging.
Their debate about aging led to the half-billion-dollar wager, which is 
payable in 2150. Austad believes someone already born will provide the proof 
of the wager. Their bet reflects the estimated proceeds of a trust fund they 
created this year.

Austad bet that someone will live to be 150 years old by 2150. Olshansky bet 
that 130 years is the top end of the human lifespan.

The wager coincides with the release of a new book, "The Quest for 
Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging" by Olshansky and his 
co-author, Bruce A. Carnes. Their book will be published Jan. 22 by W.W. 
Norton & Co.

Austad, a University of Idaho zoology professor at Moscow, Idaho, is the 
author of "Why We Age: What Science Is Discovering About the Body's Journey 
Through Life," originally published by John Wiley & Sons in 1997 and issued 
in paperback in 1999.

"Our body design, although beautiful to behold, miraculous in design and 
astonishing in its complexity, was never intended to be operated in the 
laboratory of extended life," Olshansky said.

Although Olshansky concedes it may be possible for individuals to reach the 
age of 130, he warns us to "beware what we wish for, because surviving to 
such extreme ages without significant changes to the rate at which we age, 
would produce a world filled with frailty and disability in older ages."

Biomedical technologies promise better than an even chance that at least one 
person will survive to be 150 years old by 2150, Austad believes. "We are 
closing in on the fundamental processes of aging, learning what drives them. 
Next we will begin to tinker," he wrote in the foreword to his 1997 book.

The progress continues, Austad said recently, bolstering his optimism. "We 
will live longer because cloning technology, combined with stem cell 
research, is likely to allow the growth of replacement parts (organs and 
tissues) in the not-too-distant future.

"I also think that we are now understanding the fundamental processes of 
aging, such as oxygen radical damage, well enough that pharmaceuticals and 
perhaps gene therapy to combat aging are likely within the next couple of 
decades -- in plenty of time to help someone alive today," Austad said.

"We really agree on just about everything," Olshansky said. "What we're 
really debating is what will be the world record for the human lifespan."

The wager reflects the scientists' agreement that simply being alive for 150 
years does not count. To win, Austad's 150-year old must be cognizant and 
aware of his or her surroundings throughout life.

The result of their bet will be determined Jan. 1, 2150, by three scientists 
chosen by the president of the American Association for the Advancement of 
Science. The scientists will rely first on three standard forms of 
identification such as a birth certificate, marriage license, death 
certificate or other reliable and verifiable documents.

If such evidence proves elusive, Olshansky and Austad agree to defer to the 
scientific expertise and methods of the future to determine a person's age.

The heirs of the scientist who wins the bet will collect the prize. The $500 
million total is the estimated value of a trust fund that the two men 
inaugurated this year with $150 apiece. The trust calls for each scientist 
and his heirs to contribute a minimal amount to the trust annually for the 
next 150 years.

If the winner has no living heirs in 2150, universities will emerge as the 
beneficiaries of their wager.

In Austad's case, the University of California at Los Angeles and University 
of Idaho would share the proceeds for undergraduate scholarships for 
biological sciences majors.

If Olshansky has no living heirs in 2150, he designated as his beneficiaries 
Michigan State University and University of Chicago, where he also serves as 
a senior research associate in the Center on Aging. - By Bill Loftus

[Contact: Steven N. Austad, S. Jay Olshansky, Bill Loftus, Jody 
Oesterreicher ]



12-Jan-2001


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