X-Message-Number: 15688
From: "Tim Freeman" <>
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 2001 04:37:52 -0700
Subject: Urban or Rural (missile attacks & new security)
References:  <>

Message #15130
Date: Mon, 18 Dec 2000 20:12:01 -0500
From: david pizer <>
>However, a recent assessment by the National Intelligence Council says that
>the risk of a missle attack against the United States involving chemical,
>biological or nuclear warheads is greater today that during most of the
>cold war and will continue to grow in the next 15 years.  How much - how
>fast?  They don't say

This is interesting.  Do you have a citation?

I looked at:

http://www.stimson.org/rd-table/cooper.htm
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/nie/nie99msl.html
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/circ71.htm

The last of these is particularly interesting; it claims that most of
the risk is to Hawaii and Alaska, not the continental US.

There are interesting alternatives to missles.  A bomb on a boat would
be a lot cheaper, although it would be less useful diplomatically
because it relies on stealth and therefore would be hard to make
threats with.  A nuclear bomb on a truck would perhaps be harder to
develop because of the limited size of the truck.  Thus, storing
patients near a port might be a bad idea.  All things being equal, you
might want to avoid famous cities like Washington, San Francisco, Los
Angeles, and New York because they make better terrorism targets.
Property values are driven up by the fame, so there are good economic
reasons to avoid these places anyway.

As Dan Quayle said, "I love California; I practically grew up in
Phoenix".  If the US policians can't keep track of where you are, the
foreigners won't pick your city as the first target.  If your city is
20th on the list, then by the time they get to you the situation is
pretty hopeless, so maybe we don't need to expect to win in that
scenario.

I think Scottsdale is a good place for Alcor.

>Also there are new forms of security that would offer better
>protection in a remote area.

This is interesting too.  Can you be more specific?
-- 
Tim Freeman       


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