X-Message-Number: 15915
From: "David Stern" <>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #15908 - #15912
Date: Thu, 22 Mar 2001 10:10:19 -0800

 Thomas Donaldson Wrote

>First, to Damien Broderick: In one sense, when we think about the future,
>it IS quite unpredictable. However it seems to me that simply giving up
>in terms of working out what the future will be like borders on simple
>cowardice. Fundamentally, I do not think that we are advancing with
>a higher exponent than we were advancing 100 years ago ...

Thomas,

You will enjoy this web site, especially the precis for Ray's upcoming book
"The Singularity is near".

http://www.kurzweilai.net/

Click on "The Singularity"

Then click on "The Singularity is Near"

This article gives a very persuasive argument that we are advancing at a
double exponential rate. There are many graphs illustrating the dramatic
acceleration in progress in many areas of technology.


Regards,

David Stern

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