X-Message-Number: 17566
From: 
Date: Sat, 15 Sep 2001 13:13:34 EDT
Subject: more Platt/Visser

A few more words about Platt's accusation that I still refuse to acknowledge 
culpability in the Visser affair.

Yes, I refuse to acknowledge that Alcor and CI made a mistake in the Visser 
deal. I also refuse to believe that Platt is stupid or ignorant enough not to 
understand the principle involved, but I believe he is malicious enough to 
want to mislead others. So I'll explain it again, and try to keep it in words 
of very few syllables.

A bet or decision is not a bad one just because it turns out to be a loser, 
nor is it a good one just because it turns out to be a winner. Bad bets 
sometimes win and good bets sometimes lose. A bet or decision is good if it 
is logical, based on what we know at the time.

The key fact in the Visser rat heart case was that the Alcor apparatus, as I 
recall, showed a temperature near that of liquid nitrogen, and after 
rewarming the heart resumed beating. There was clapping and cheering around 
the room. (Not by me--I'm not that demonstrative.)

Of course we would have liked more confirmation--more hearts, longer cold 
periods, etc. Circumstances didn't allow that--hearts and time ran out--and 
we had to make a decision based on incomplete information--a common 
situation. One can argue until Hell freezes over that we should have paid 
more attention to peripheral issues, such as Mrs. Visser's relatively slim 
credentials and her other claims, but that is just more Monday morning 
quarterbacking. I regret losing the bet, but I can't regret making it, since 
that would have meant acting irrationally.

There is a partial analogy with Alcor's decision to apply its "vitrification" 
procedure to human patients, even though that procedure, to my knowledge, has 
never been tested and evaluated with experimental animals. The evidence for 
it is incomplete and indirect.

Does that mean the decision was a bad one? Of course not. They used their 
best judgment based on what they knew, which is all one can ask. I only fault 
them for making exaggerated claims--implying that "[successful] vitrification 
is here" when that has not been demonstrated.

Robert Ettinger

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