X-Message-Number: 17608
From: "Gary Tripp" <>
Subject: telecom recovery way way off
Date: Tue, 18 Sep 2001 14:58:44 -0400

I suspect that many of us are tech investors and so this may be of interest
if only tangentially Some of you who invest in technology may think that the
current market trouble suggests that a buying opportunity may be shaping up
in the telecom sector, please read this:

ARLINGTON, Va., Sep 18, 2001 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Friedman, Billings,
Ramsey & Co., Inc., a subsidiary of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc.
(NYSE: FBR), today issued a comprehensive report on the telecommunications
industry which says the current recession in the sector will last longer
than
predicted by most industry observers.

In a 73-page report, "Surviving the Telecom Recession," Senior Analyst Susan
Kalla identified companies in the telecommunications service and equipment
sectors that are best positioned to survive the protracted downturn. "In
general, we believe values for telecom equipment stocks could decline by a
third
from their already-low levels as the industry fundamentals continue to erode
through 2002," Ms. Kalla said.

"We do not believe investors have fully factored in the severity of the
drop-off
in demand for telecom products in the second half of 2001 and the potential
for
a continued slide of revenues through 2002 and 2003," she added.

In the report, Ms. Kalla says equipment revenues will fall 14 percent this
year,
as opposed to consensus opinion that assumes a 5 percent decline, and will
not
stabilize as predicted in 2002 and 2003. She suggests the downturn momentum
in
revenues and earnings for telecom equipment will not reverse itself until
companies complete a major-league restructuring a consolidation to realign
expenses with lower revenue prospects.

On August 31, Ms. Kalla initiated coverage of Ciena Corporation (Nasdaq:
CIEN),
Juniper Networks, Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR) and Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU)
with
'Underperform' ratings.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc. (NYSE: FBR), the parent company of
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., Inc., is a financial holding company for
businesses that provide investment banking, institutional brokerage,
specialized
asset management, and banking products and services. FBR provides capital
and
financial expertise throughout a company's lifecycle and affords investors
access to a range of proprietary financial products and services.
Headquartered
in the Washington metropolitan area, FBR has offices in Arlington and
Reston,
Va., Atlanta, Bethesda, Md., Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas,
Irvine, Ca., New York City, Portland, Seattle, London, and Vienna. Bank
products
and services are offered by FBR National Bank & Trust, member FDIC and an
Equal
Housing Lender. For more information, see http://www.fbr.com .

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