X-Message-Number: 18015
Date: Sat, 24 Nov 2001 09:37:46 -0800
From: Kennita Watson <>
Subject: The oil supply is falling!  The oil supply is falling!
References: <>

From: "Mark Plus" <>
> Is anyone reading _Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage_, by
> Kenneth S. Deffeyes?  I would think a declining oil supply will affect the
> economic environment for our Supersurvival goals.
> In case someone wants to shrug off Deffeyes's scenario, I would point out
> that it's based on the work of the legendary earth scientist M. King
> Hubbert, who is kind of like the Gordon Moore of the oil industry.  Hubbert
> back in the 1950's projected that U.S. oil production would peak and then
> permanently decline by the early 1970's.  In fact, the peak happened in
> 1970...

We aren't on the slide quite yet.  From the article:

	Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated version of the 
	Hubbert method to make the global  calculations. The numbers 
	pointed to 2003 as the year of peak production, but because 
	estimates of global reserves are inexact, Deffeyes settled 
	on a range from 2004 to 2008.

> http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0691090866/

The description of the book on that page includes a Scientific
American article on it which addresses most of the problems I 
had with your summary, including pointing out that global, not
just US, production will fall, and that alternatives will be
found, though probably after a painful transition period.

Check out the URL above -- the article is worth reading.

Time to reconsider that electric car?  Maybe....
May you live long and prosper,
Kennita Watson          | Emancipate yourselves from mental slavery;
     |   None but ourselves can free our minds.
http://www.kennita.com  |           -- Bob Marley, "Redemption Song"

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