X-Message-Number: 18414 From: Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2002 18:33:37 EST Subject: Re: summit agenda Regarding the upcoming summit meeting, I applaud this effort without reservation. However, if I might be so bold, I would like to suggest a context for such discussions. We deplore the limited time frames of our detractors yet when we approach the practical details of our own organizational arrangements, we adopt a similarly narrow perspective. I believe as I assume most of you also believe that cryonics is an idea whose time will come. We don't know when, of course. Most of us are probably over our dismay that it didn't come after the publication of "The Prospect." After all, the idea was so obvious, so clearly and convincingly laid out by the estimable and beautifully articulate Mr. Ettinger. Then we thought it should have boomed after two appearances on Johnny Carson, then "We Froze the First Man" but that was all in the 1960's. Nearly 40 years on, we are still waiting and a hardy few are struggling. We have at least two organizations which can actually provide services. These organizations have gone separate ways which is to be expected and their leadership have strong convictions, I suppose, that the way they have chosen is much the better way, certainly to the exclusion of any idea of unification or even much serious reciprocity. However, what they both should realize is that when our idea's time has really come, neither one will be the big player. I believe this is so from years of studying various technological innovations in agriculture and industry. As the idea gains wide acceptance, let us say in the tens of thousands (still a tiny minority but an economically significant one), and assuming that these new believers will be drawn mostly from economically privileged elites (annual incomes $50,000 and up), there will emerge a strong economic interest, probably but not necessarily from the funeral industry, in providing these services at a profit. After the 100,000 believer barrier is crossed, venture capitalists will begin to see images of windfall profits dancing before their eyes. Then the fun really begins as a mad scramble begins to be the dominant service provider using every tactic in the book including merciless price cutting, deceptive advertising, books cooking, wild over-promising, etc. You name it. I seriously doubt that either CI or ALCOR will be major players by that time. Unlike the internet which got a free ride from the government, there will also be no end of attempts to interfere, regulate, stop these developments on religious, "ethical" and who knows what other grounds. These opposing efforts will ultimately fail, not because we have such a good idea, but because of the counterforce of a multibillion dollar industry which will then be behind us. So what has all this got to do with the cryonics summit? I think, first of all, that we need to be aware of this elephant which is in the back of the room. We need to chart a joint course that will protect all our existing frozen heads and bodies because the elephant probably won't care about them. Secondly, we need to jointly maintain a strong umbrella organization of believers which is dedicated to research, information sharing, and publicizing cryonics as an idea. Right now it appears that a lot of the energies and some of the financial resources of the two existing service providers is going into promotional and research efforts which would be better invested in this umbrella organization. Among other things, the umbrella group should be able to speak to the science and technology of cryonics with maximum authority and minimum self interest, referring interested newcomers to either of the service providers without prejudice. Thirdly, I think it is time to have more serious and extensive discussions with the funeral industry out of which the anticipated elephant entrepreneurial cryonicists will likely emerge. I would see this initially as a matter of seeking to make presentations at their meetings. The best people to do this are those representing our umbrella group, not either of the service providers, and to keep the discussions focussed on the science and the future commercial possibilities for them as well as raising the level of acceptability of discussing such matters publicly. Thus we could contribute to demystifying a process and an emerging technology to a group for whom death and dead bodies are already thoroughly demystified. [By the way, speaking of demystification, has anybody been watching the great new HBO series "Six Feet Under"?] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=18414