X-Message-Number: 18452
Date: Thu, 31 Jan 2002 14:09:36 -0500
From: Keith Henson <>
Subject: Re: future businesses

CP writes:

>I agree with Ron that the current cryonics businesses should not expect to
>be dominant 30 or 50 years from now, because they don't have any patents,
>or much capital, or a significant share of the future market.

Of course I could be wrong about this, but I really doubt there will be 
*any* cryonics organizations around in 50 years and perhaps none in 30.

The reason is nanotechnology and exponential advances.  As I mentioned here 
a while back, as of last Sept. the rate research dollars were being poured 
into the field was at $1.3 billion with a doubling time of 18 months.

It is harder to measure how close we are to the technology able to stop 
aging and revive those in suspension, and the amount of money spent on an 
area may not be the best measure of how much progress is being 
made.  Still, the fact that we are looking at an exponential process which 
I will assume is doubling on this scale or faster means that a major 
misestimate of how difficult the problem is only takes a short time to 
reach anyway.

2x  18 months
4x   3 years
16x 6 years
256x 12 years
65,536x 24 years

There is already been this much advance in integrated circuits.

Keith Henson

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