X-Message-Number: 18593 Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 03:23:49 -0800 From: "John Grigg" <> Subject: Re: "Drexlerian" as an epithet This post discusses the developing trends and struggles within the nanotech community. Very interesting reading to say the least. John Date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 09:53:23 -0800 (PST) From: (Peter C. McCluskey) [add to address book] [add to spam block list] Subject: "Drexlerian" as an epithet To: Reply To: () writes: >I have felt for some time that cryonics was a lead weight dragging down >acceptance of Drexlerian nanotech. My theory is that people have an >overwhelmingly negative emotional reaction to cryonics, in part because >it implies that the death of their loved ones was preventable, and this >carries over to any technology which would seem to make cryonics credible. I don't get this impression at all. To the limited extent that investors are noticing Drexlerian nanotech, they don't seem to connect it with cryonics beyond noticing that both require long-term forecasts to determine their value. Investors have been pretty consistent about distinguishing between long-term research projects and projects that can become commercial products within a few years. The best explanation I can come up with for their motives is a desire not to repeat the kind of mistakes they made at the height of the internet bubble - betting on half-baked forecasts of what companies would be earning five to ten years into the future. (People who made those kinds of bets on the internet around 1995 are doing quite well, and I haven't seen any speculation in nanotech stocks that rivals the Netscape IPO yet. But most investors remember the peak better than they remember 1995, probably because most of them didn't know about the internet in 1995 and have some reason to think they aren't wise enough to get in at the very start of a big trend). >But maybe that was premature. We are seeing a backlash, a rearguard >fighting action against the original vision of nanotech. Opponents are >trying to build a firewall against Drexlerian mechanosynthesis, drawing a >distinction between their prosaic nanotech and Drexler's far-out visions. "Fighting action" is an exaggeration. Except for a couple of Nobel prize winners whose careers would seem less important if Drexler's vision was realized soon, the main reaction is more like "we can't see that far into the future". Zyvex apparently hasn't had any trouble getting funding for its MEMS research (from a combination of government and industry sources) while saying they're following Drexler's vision (although they seem to be putting increasing emphasis on non-Drexlerian justifications for their research). >I think Foresight needs to go back to its roots and shore up the >foundations. It's not enough to have "nanotechnology" initiatives showing >up everywhere. Few of those efforts are making significant progress >towards Drexler's machine-based models. Foresight needs to remind I would certainly like Foresight to criticise nanohype in a more clear and public manner than it has been doing. But doing so effectively would drive away some of their senior associates (such as Josh Wolfe) and create problems with their running of technical conferences that are dominated by researchers who aren't interested in Drexlerian nanotech. I.e. they appear to have a nontrivial financial incentive to stick to their current course. What can we do about that? Offer to increase our donations to Foresight if they piss off the short-sighted nanotechnologists? I doubt we're willing to offer enough money for that. Threaten to switch a competing organization? ExI is sort of a competitor that farsighted senior associates can think of as an alternative to Foresight, but I don't know how to make it into a succesful enough organization that I could dismiss Foresight as unimportant. >people that there is more to nanotech than making ultra-fine powders >for smoother paint. We have to keep our eye on the prize, a technology >which can utterly revolutionize every aspect of the world. If research >is not moving us towards that goal, it should not receive funding under >nanotech grants, even if it happens to involve little tiny pieces. Foresight hasn't exactly been praising the government for spending it's research money wisely, although it tends to direct what few comments it makes towards hardcore senior associates rather than towards the public. -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Peter McCluskey | Free Jon Johansen! http://www.rahul.net/pcm | Check out Cupid School where you will learn from Matchmaker's best and brightest. Good Luck! http://ecard.matchmaker.com/cupid0202/cupid0202.html Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=18593