X-Message-Number: 18722
Date: Fri, 08 Mar 2002 03:23:11 -0800
From: "John Grigg" <>
Subject: The cost of anti-aging drugs

Toby Christensen wrote:
It's important to realize that anti-ageing drugs will be hugely 
expensive and that only the very wealthy will be able to afford them.
(end)


That's right!!  So what are you doing to become a multi-millionaire?  In my case
I happen to sell Spamway!  Yes, that wonderful line of products made from spam,
and spam-related meat products.  I just need to get twenty friends to sign up 
with the company as associates, with each of them signing up twenty friends!  
Would you like to be my Australian associate? : )


Truly effective anti-aging drugs and especially genetic treatments will be very 
expensive in the beginning.  But over time hopefully the price should drop quite
a bit.  One reason for this is that huge profits can be made by selling in 
large volume.  Wal-Mart is proof of this business concept!  


Also, when the patents expire the competition will be able to move in.  This 
will definitely drive the price down.  Of course it is common practice now for 
drug companies to slightly alter drugs and then repatent it!  Very tricky, these
drug companies...    


Ultimately, I think you will always have to "pay through the nose" for the 
latest cutting edge biotech and pharmaceutical methods to fight aging.  But if 
you use the cutting edge methods from let's say five or ten years in the past 
you will be paying much less.  The results may not be as impressive, but it will
be far better then nothing.  


And remember, at least you will using medical technology which has been 
thoroughly tried and tested!  The millionaire with access to the "finest" new 
treatment may be in for a nasty surprise if something goes haywire.

you continue:
Even with government healthcare in some countries, 
anti-ageing drugs will most likely never be put on public health schemes. 
(end)


It will most likely take a LONG time!  I do think in time we will see it though.
As the "swell" of the Singularity washes over history, I think we will see 
A.I., nanotech and biotech making possible serious life-extension for public 
health schemes.  I would say we have another three or four decades till that 
time comes.


I do believe that at a certain point catastrophic shockwaves will tear through 
society if such treatments are not made affordable to at least the middle class.
This may happen when every "modest" millionaire on the planet can have decades
or even centuries of healthy, vital years added to their life, though no one 
else can afford it.  Joseph Haldeman wrote the novel "Buying Time" with this 
very plotline in mind.  The immortals of his novel lived in fear of their lives.
But I believe things will move along fast enough that the following scenario 
will not happen.


Toby, you need to read the books "The Spike" and "The Last Mortal Generation" by
your countryman Damien Broderick.  It gives an excellent and very exciting 
outline of what is coming down the road for humanity.  

best wishes,

John             









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