X-Message-Number: 18942
Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2002 07:59:37 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: CryoNet #18939 - #18941

Hi everyone!

A short comment on the so-called "probability of revival". If we are
going to compute probabilities, we need to know the total number
of possible events (the denominator) and the number of possible
events which will happen (the numerator). Probability is of course
a fraction <= 1. 

I note that we do not now have a value either for the denominator or
the numerator of this fraction. Note that the denominator can't just
be 2 (ie, either you survive or you don't) because the number of 
possible ways we can either survive or not survive is much larger
than 2 ... and I would be surprised if anyone can present me with
a list. As for the numerator, that too remains unknown ... not that
the calculation has already become meaningless when the denominator
isn't known.

I know that many people want to take about probabilities of revival.
Such suppositions remain totally meaningless, when looked at coolly
with the math required in mind.

Not only are they meaningless, but it's impossible to give these
numbers for the simple reason that any ways in which we improve
suspensions will also alter the numerator and the denominator. Even
if we could find them in the first place, they would probably 
change the following week, especially if we ourselves are doing
our best to change them. It's like asking for the probability of
victory in a battle in which you are just then taking part:
you're busily trying to do your best to change that probability.
A probability calculation becomes meaningless to all but historians
who want to discuss it afterwards: in cryonics terms, when you've
either survived or failed to survive. (And for cryonics it's even
worse, because your victory may just not have come yet, even
if that of many other cryonicists has... victory here being your
revival).

If you want to be revived, then do what you can to see that become
more likely. Its probability doesn't mean a thing. 

		Best wishes and long long life to all,

			Thomas Donaldson

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