X-Message-Number: 18947 From: "mike99" <> Subject: RE: CryoNet #18939 - #18942 on the probabilities of cryonic success Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2002 15:58:28 -0600 I have to agree with Thomas Donaldson that we cannot, at this time, calculate the odds that cryonics will work at all, or that in any individual case it will succeed. I do believe that we can make one gross generalization, however: The odds for radical life extension -- whatever they may prove to be in the long run -- are very likely improved with cryonics. Cryonics will either prove to be a net benefit or a neutral factor; it can't hurt (except financially, and even there probably not by much for most people living in the industrialized world). In my particular case, given my present age and the best estimates I have seen for development of other life extension technologies, I believe that cryonics is a far better bet than, say, waiting for mind uploading to be developed. I base this on 1) my life expectancy (according to standard actuarial tables as of the year 1999) and 2) on the Kurzweil-More estimated time of Singularity as being circa 2040-2060 A.D., and 3) assuming that the Singularity will necessarily precede the development of mind uploading. Of course, your mileage may vary. Regards, Michael LaTorra Member: Extropy Institute: www.extropy.org World Transhumanist Association: www.transhumanism.org Alcor Life Extension Foundation: www.alcor.org Society for Technical Communication: www.stc.org -----Original Message----- From: CryoNet [mailto:] Sent: Sunday, April 21, 2002 3:00 AM To: Message #18942 Date: Sat, 20 Apr 2002 07:59:37 -0400 From: Thomas Donaldson <> Subject: CryoNet #18939 - #18941 Hi everyone! A short comment on the so-called "probability of revival". If we are going to compute probabilities, we need to know the total number of possible events (the denominator) and the number of possible events which will happen (the numerator). Probability is of course a fraction <= 1. I note that we do not now have a value either for the denominator or the numerator of this fraction. Note that the denominator can't just be 2 (ie, either you survive or you don't) because the number of possible ways we can either survive or not survive is much larger than 2 ... and I would be surprised if anyone can present me with a list. As for the numerator, that too remains unknown ... not that the calculation has already become meaningless when the denominator isn't known. I know that many people want to take about probabilities of revival. Such suppositions remain totally meaningless, when looked at coolly with the math required in mind. Not only are they meaningless, but it's impossible to give these numbers for the simple reason that any ways in which we improve suspensions will also alter the numerator and the denominator. Even if we could find them in the first place, they would probably change the following week, especially if we ourselves are doing our best to change them. It's like asking for the probability of victory in a battle in which you are just then taking part: you're busily trying to do your best to change that probability. A probability calculation becomes meaningless to all but historians who want to discuss it afterwards: in cryonics terms, when you've either survived or failed to survive. (And for cryonics it's even worse, because your victory may just not have come yet, even if that of many other cryonicists has... victory here being your revival). If you want to be revived, then do what you can to see that become more likely. Its probability doesn't mean a thing. Best wishes and long long life to all, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=18947