X-Message-Number: 18957
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 15:52:57 -0400 (EDT)
From: Charles Platt <>
Subject: A mild case of death?

Thanks to Mike Darwin for substantiating (intentionally or coincidentally)
the statement that I made in passing, here, a week or so ago--that most
cryonicists don't die optimally.

Speaking personally, as someone who has no family history of cancer, no
indicators of cardiovascular problems, but lives in a remote area and must
drive about 30,000 to 40,000 miles a year, my greatest chance of death is
a car crash. This is likely to involve head injuries, a prolonged period
of warm ischemia, and possible autopsy. Also, since I do construction
work, there is a significant risk of accidental death by falling off a
ladder, cutting my leg off with a chain saw, etc. None of these modes of
death is remotely optimal, and some may be extremely permanent.

But let's deal with the population as a whole, and go to a reliable
source: "Statistical Abstract of the United States," U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1998 (the most recent copy I have). These
figures are in U.S. deaths per 100,000 people per year. I have omitted
many minor categories.

875   Total deaths per 100,000 people per year
277   Heart disease (almost one-third of all deaths)
60    Cerebrovascular disease (strokes)
205   Cancer (about one-quarter of all deaths)
35    Accidents, of which about one-half are in motor vehicles

To get the percentage of deaths which each category constitutes, divide
each number by 8.75. Naturally some modes of death are more prevalent in
some age groups. Thus, younger people are much more at risk of dying from
accidents than from cancer, relatively speaking.

Overall, if you have a 30% chance of dying from cardiac arrest, where do
you plan to have your heart attack? In a hospital, if you are lucky.
Otherwise, you are virtually certain (greater than 90 percent chance) to
be rescued from cardiac arrest a little too late for the paramedics to
achieve successful 100-percent resuscitation. Brain damage or brain death
is very likely.

What kind of stroke would you like to have? Preferably one that doesn't
damage your higher brain functions TOO much, right? On the other hand, you
don't want the "locked in" syndrome since that could drive you totally
crazy long before you are allowed to die.

Cancer looks more promising. Good advance warning, and your brain should
survive unscathed--unless of course (oops!) you have brain cancer.

As Mike points out, last-minute cases may tend to have a better chance of
good cryopreservation, because often they involve a patient who is near
death (i.e. has not died suddenly), and there is time (anything from a
couple of days to three months) to make good arrangements.

However, most of the people reading this list are not last-minute
candidates. For them, the Statistical Abstract of the United States
provides a fairly good guide. Oh, maybe there's a slightly reduced
incidence of heart disease among cryonicists, because they are more health
conscious ... yet I've seen a surprising incidence of obesity and
junk-food consumption within this community. Overall, I don't believe
cryonicists are *that* much healthier than average.

Add it all up, and I would say your chances of "dying badly" (i.e. with
substantial brain-damaging warm ischemic time) are about 50-50 or worse.
Yet hardly anyone wants to acknowledge this. Nor is it mentioned
prominently in the literature of any organizations.

Of course we all have our own ideas about what "dying badly" means, and
how reversible it will be. This is a controversial area, but we can at
least establish the extreme ends of the scale, and the midpoint. If we're
serious about seeing conventional death as being not necessarily fatal, we
should quantify it, as we would a case of measles. There would be a "mild
case of death," a "serious case of death," and a "very serious case of
death which is probably fatal."

At one end of the scale, we have bodies in the LA coroner's office which
had been lying there for months and were partially eaten by rats. I would
refer to this type of death as "probably fatal."

At the other end of the scale, we have someone who dies suddenly from
cardiac arrest (after virtually no agonal phase), *with the transport team
somehow standing by.* The patient has a good circulatory system, was
premedicated within the limits of the law, is given immediate
cardio-pulmonary support, and achieves excellent neurovitrification. I
would call this a "very mild case of death."

Unfortunately, mild cases of death are rare, serious cases are quite
common, and fatal cases occur maybe 1 time in 4 (e.g. when someone dies
and simply isn't found for several days, or when Alzheimer's or a tumor
has destroyed a large amount of brain structure before death occurs).

Those who believe they have a very good chance of resuscitation should
include these factors in their calculations.

And drive safely.

--Charles Platt

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