X-Message-Number: 18959
From: "Josiah Draper" <>
References: <>
Subject: Re: Timing is Everything
Date: Tue, 23 Apr 2002 17:29:22 -0600

Date: Mon, 22 Apr 2002 09:22:53 -0700 (PDT)
From: Scott Badger <>
Subject: Timing is Everything

I have been on an AI list for a very, very long time (through another email
address), and the proffessers I have talked with, and the general amount of
people I have talked to about AI, it seems as if that we will reach
singularity (superhuman intelligence in computers) as soon as 2015, and as
late as 2030.
-Josiah Draper

>"The conclusions that I draw from these analyses are
>as follows. Even with the "conservative" assumptions,
>we find that nonbiological intelligence crosses the
>threshold of matching and then very quickly exceeds
>biological intelligence (both hardware and software)
>prior to 2030."
>
>Max M. was more conservative suggesting it would be no
>sooner than 2020 and no later than 2100 with 2050.

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