X-Message-Number: 18971
From: "Simon Carter" <>
Subject: RE: Slipping singularity (Message #18956)
Date: Fri, 26 Apr 2002 11:19:10 +1000

In Message #18956 Michael Price wrote:

> Michael LaTorra says:
> > the Kurzweil-More estimated time of Singularity as being circa 
> > 2040-2060 A.D.,
>
> 2060?  That's a bit alarming.  Vernor Vinge invented the
> Singularity in (I think) the early 1970's, ETA 2030.  
> That means that in about 30 yrs the Singularity's ETA has 
> slipped by ....30 years.

Funny that. You know I wouldn't mind betting that in another 30 years it
will have slipped again (dare I suggest by 30 years!). Rather a long
wait to prove my speculation (and how fascinating to be wrong) but only
time will tell.

Its not that I don't think that wondrous things will happen over the
years to come - but the future has the darndest habit of taking its time
in arriving.

Long life,

Simon

Brisbane, Australia

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