X-Message-Number: 18978 Date: Sat, 27 Apr 2002 13:07:43 +1000 From: Damien Broderick <> Subject: re: #18956: Slipping singularity [michaelprice] At 09:00 AM 4/24/02 -0000, michaelprice wrote: >Michael LaTorra says: >> the Kurzweil-More estimated time of Singularity as being >> circa 2040-2060 A.D., >2060? That's a bit alarming. Vernor Vinge invented the >Singularity in (I think) the early 1970's, ETA 2030. >That means that in about 30 yrs the Singularity's ETA has >slipped by ....30 years. But this isn't true. Vinge's novel MAROONED IN REAL TIME (which I think is the first place the Singularity idea was fully deployed and named) only came out in 1986 (written 1983-5). In that novel, Vinge deliberately set up a devastating plague war at the turn of the millennium to postpone progress, precisely to give himself narrative breathing space, and still his Singularity came by shortly after 2210. In his Afterword, he says explicitly: "I showed artificial intelligence and intelligence amplification proceeding at what I suspect is a snail's pace. Sorry. I needed civilization to last long enough to hang a plot on it." In reality, as he made clear in his 1993 NASA address, he expected it by perhaps 2025 or 2030. It's true that since then he seems to be backpedaling a little on the whole idea. But don't overlook the very posit underlying the Singularity metaphor: if it's valid, it happens faster the closer you get to it. For the largest part of the rising curve, it seems to be moving moderately slowly. It's the last two or three intervals of an exponential runaway that move explosively (it takes forever to crawl a quarter of the way, then in one jump you're halfway there, then in one more jump...). Damien Broderick [see my book THE SPIKE for more detail on all this: http://www.panterraweb.com/the_spike.htm ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=18978