X-Message-Number: 191 From att!parc.xerox.com!merkle Fri Jun 15 19:51:23 1990 Return-Path: <att!parc.xerox.com!merkle> Received: from att.UUCP by whscad1.att.uucp (4.1/SMI-3.2) id AA00258; Fri, 15 Jun 90 19:51:23 EDT Received: by att.att.com; Fri Jun 15 20:54:45 1990 Received: from manarken.parc.Xerox.COM by arisia.Xerox.COM with SMTP (5.61+/IDA-1.2.8/gandalf) id AA01111; Fri, 15 Jun 90 16:43:14 -0700 Received: by manarken.parc.xerox.com (5.61+/IDA-1.2.8/gandalf) id AA03673; Fri, 15 Jun 90 16:41:30 PDT Message-Id: <> Date: Fri, 15 Jun 90 16:41:30 PDT From: Ralph Merkle <> To: Subject: Re: cryonics #190 - Re: Science Court (Fact Forum) My opinion on experts is actually more conservative. In general, people who have devoted themselves to a subject for twenty to thirty years ("experts") are often quite knowledgeable and can produce quite reliable answers to questions that fall within their range of expertise. The problem, simply stated, is that "experts" (and, indeed, all of use) often rely upon assumptions which are "obvious" but which are either difficult to examine in detail or lie well outside our area of understanding. Once someone has been anointed an "expert" (by social context, or whatever) there is a strong desire to provide the "authoritative" answer. Unfortunately, the answer which is most often technically correct is "I don't know." Saying this phrase is difficult, especially in front of an eager audience who want to know "the answer." The most recent (and amusing) example of this was the ethicist (chosen by heaven knows what process...) selected to debate Carlos Mondragon on television recently. He stated quite certainly that cryonics would not work, but was forced to confess that he had not actually read anything about cryonics. In short, he did indeed have an area of expertise (medicine) and I'm sure if you asked him appropriate questions within that area of expertise he would answer quite competently. When asked a question that was in fact outside his area of expertise, but in a context where he was expected to be "an expert," he failed to say "I don't know" but instead invented an answer that he thought was consistent with the facts he knew. Such invention is harmless if it is recognized as such, but it can cause much damage if it is accepted uncritically. The answer you get depends on the assumptions you make. Ideally, every answer we received would include an explicit list of the assumptions upon which that answer depended. In practice, we seldom get even a partial list of the underlieing assumptions. Even worse, many people ("experts" included) make implicit assumptions which are "obvious" and hence never examined. Unless you have some reason for believing that all the implicit assumptions made by the person from whom you solicit "expert" testimony are in fact correct, then the answer is unreliable. Cryonics requires a re-examination of several quite basic assumptions, and so it is remarkably difficult to get a straight answer. This is not to say that "experts" are useless and foolish, it simply means that in any discussion with an "expert" it is essential to render explicit the implicit assumptions they have made, and then inquire what basis (if any) they have for these freshly exposed assumptions. This process is often quite irritating for the "expert" for several reasons, (ego being not insignificant). That, at least, is my expert opinion...... Cheers! Ralph Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=191