X-Message-Number: 19263
From: 
Date: Wed, 12 Jun 2002 05:38:28 EDT
Subject: re: Global Warming/cooling?

A couple quick points re global warming/cooling:

1.  We don't know enough to figure out for certain if the Earth is in a 
cooling trend or a warming trend.

2.  The temperature of the Earth is self-adjusting- the Earth will survive 
and so will her ecosystem, but the people living on the Earth need 
technological and energy resources to survive, whether the temperature goes 
up or down.  

3.  The most recent guesses that I've heard, are that we were in a cooling 
trend (witness the Viking settlements in Greenland) and now are in a warming 
trend, possibly due to greenhouse effect from burning carbon based fuels- but 
that is not certain.

4.  Historical research into core samples in the arctic, antarctic, and 
ancient lake beds in England seem to indicate a disturbing historical trend:  
global warming usually is followed by a precipitous ice age-  climates going 
from pine forests to glaciers in 20 years or less- all that warming tending 
to increase cloud cover until the scale tips suddenly the other way- then 
slowly rebalancing over time.  Yes, apparently you can have global warming 
and your ice age, too!  And almost at the same time!

5.  Whatever the future holds, eventually man will have the knowledge and 
resources to control the global climate.   We can already model it crudely in 
computer models... the rest, as Robert Forward likes to say, is engineering.  

6.  We know so very little -one example-  just recently we've discovered 
there is oil in the Mars meteorites... and now a new theory is put forth that 
oil comes from methane trapped in the Earth during its formation... not from 
dinosaurs or ancient rain forests- and oil resources may be vaster than 
imagined.   And how many times has the weatherman on your local news 
predicted a 60% chance of rain...while it is pouring rain outside?

7.  The point is, probably its best to not screw with the climate TOO much 
until we figure out what's really happening.   Pollution is a bad thing in my 
book, for many reasons- health, esthetics, environmental impact.  Argument fro
m authority or passion won't convince me one way or another.   Scientists are 
people-- smart people, who often tend to outsmart themselves. (Not even the 
very wise can see all ends) I would tend to think that the Earth's climate 
right now is doing pretty good most places, averaged on the whole.   Why not 
try to mitigate our meddling for a few years, until we have a better grasp on 
what's going on?

And, hopefully, those in suspension won't have to be moved to cooler--- or 
warmer--- climes before they can be revived.

best,
Mike Donahue

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