X-Message-Number: 19367
From: "John de Rivaz" <>
Subject: note on investment and the accountancy collapse
Date: Sat, 29 Jun 2002 14:00:06 +0100

The CTSL in a recent email extra stated that

July 8, 1932   April 28, 1942  June 26, 1962 and  August 12, 1982  were all
major lows that happened during the middle of the 2nd year of the decennial
cycle, and the last 3 were exactly 20 years apart.

During news coverage of the failures within the corporate accountancy
profession, it was stated that the bull market that ended in March 2000 had
run for 15 years. On that basis, sustained market recovery cannot be
expected until 2005 at the earliest.

If the bear market that started in March 2000 continues for five years, then
this will have a detrimental effect on money spent on research. Whereas
research programs have a much longer time scale than short term market
fluctuations, five years is not insignificant. There do seem to be more news
stories about problems like mountains of old fridges, tv sets and now tyres
(exacerbated by regulation that makes it difficult to dispose of them) than
stories about medical advances or other new technology.

However none of this alters my long term view that **if** we live in a
where ultimately cryonics revivals become possible there will be enormous
advances in technology that will be reflected in stock market quotations
taken over the decades or even centuries between then and now. Those taking
the long term view will have to ride out this and many other storms before
that comes.

What does need to be avoided is the pressures that inevitably
mount to "sell because the end of the world is nigh" or to give in to other
pressures to raise money. People who are known to be investors are often
considered to be poor risks when the market is doing badly, and loans can be
called in (which is why it is always bad to borrow to invest). It can be
more difficult to issue checks or to buy goods and services on account.
There can
be pressures from family members who think it may be the last chance to take
that big holiday, rebuild the kitchen or whatever before all the money runs

Sincerely, John de Rivaz:      http://www.deRivaz.com :
http://www.longevity-report.com : http://www.autopsychoice.com :

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