X-Message-Number: 19749
Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 11:43:53 -0700 (PDT)
From: Scott Badger <>
Subject: Odds and Ends

It's funny. I'm reading George Smith's post about how
the probabilities of being reanimated are either 0 or
1, and thinking... hmmm, what are the odds that the
probability will be 1?  ;^]

George is right, of course, that there are only two
outcomes; either (1) you'll make it or (2) you won't.
But he obfuscates the issue by suggesting that
outcomes and probabilities are the same thing.
Probabilities do still apply to those two possible
outcomes. I do applaud George's argument that we
should not make baseless predictions about (1) or (2)
above. We have very little to go on. 

Then it occurs to me that a Drake-like equation would
be applicable here. The I read on and, lo and behold,
I see Steve Harris' post which actually supplies the
probability factors. Uncanny. [BTW, Steve, your
previous post regarding Borg issues is still causing
me great cogitation. Thanks.]

Here are the factors again.

P1: Probability that your memories will survive your 
cardiac arrest until the cryonics organization can
reach your side and get your brain cool.

P2: Probability that your memories will then survive 
cryoprotectant solution and vitrification in liquid
nitrogen.

P3: Probability that eventually molecular repair
technology will be invented that is capable of
restoring humans, memory intact, when damaged this
badly

P4: Probability that society will survive development
of that technology

P5: Probability that your cryonics organization will 
survive that long, as well as you with it (these can
be slip into sub probabilities if you like).

P6: Probability that anybody in the best of futures,
will be interested, resourceful, and nice enough to
use the technology on you.

P7: Probability that you'll then be allowed to live a
live that would be more acceptable to you than being
dead.
-------------------

Although P1 above hints at it, based on earlier
remarks by Mike Darwin (if I recall correctly), the
factor that is noticeably absent and should probably
replace P1 is:

Probobility that you'll receive a proper suspension
after deanimating.

Mike (and Charles Platt, I believe, agreed) observed
that a great many members don't get good suspensions
or suspensions at all because they "die" and are not
found soon enough, or suffer extensive head injuries,
or develop some type of dementia, or legal
difficutlies prevent a timely suspension, etc. The set
of all things that can prevent one from getting a good
suspension is likely the single greatest obstacle to
cryonicists making it into the future. (that set
includes "not being signed up", by the way)

Because making it to the future is my primary goal, I
have become more risk averse and more concerned with
my health. I drive less often and more carefully, I
don't jump out of planes any more, I get check-ups,
etc. I'm not manic about it but I'm definitely more
careful because I intend to make it.

Taken to it's logical but absurd conclusion, I realize
that this means I should make arrangements for
deanimation and suspension as soon as possible in
order to avoid most of the elements that comprise the
set of obstacles in P1. Of course, the cryonics
organizations can neither participate in nor condone
such action and rightly so. 

I also have no plans to make such arrangements and do
not condone this action. But I can't say how I'll feel
when I'm 80 or so and antiaging technologies haven't
matured. Or how I'll feel if I'm diagnosed with
Alzheimer's. What to do then?

Best regards,

Scott

"Vita Perpetua"

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