X-Message-Number: 19749 Date: Sat, 10 Aug 2002 11:43:53 -0700 (PDT) From: Scott Badger <> Subject: Odds and Ends It's funny. I'm reading George Smith's post about how the probabilities of being reanimated are either 0 or 1, and thinking... hmmm, what are the odds that the probability will be 1? ;^] George is right, of course, that there are only two outcomes; either (1) you'll make it or (2) you won't. But he obfuscates the issue by suggesting that outcomes and probabilities are the same thing. Probabilities do still apply to those two possible outcomes. I do applaud George's argument that we should not make baseless predictions about (1) or (2) above. We have very little to go on. Then it occurs to me that a Drake-like equation would be applicable here. The I read on and, lo and behold, I see Steve Harris' post which actually supplies the probability factors. Uncanny. [BTW, Steve, your previous post regarding Borg issues is still causing me great cogitation. Thanks.] Here are the factors again. P1: Probability that your memories will survive your cardiac arrest until the cryonics organization can reach your side and get your brain cool. P2: Probability that your memories will then survive cryoprotectant solution and vitrification in liquid nitrogen. P3: Probability that eventually molecular repair technology will be invented that is capable of restoring humans, memory intact, when damaged this badly P4: Probability that society will survive development of that technology P5: Probability that your cryonics organization will survive that long, as well as you with it (these can be slip into sub probabilities if you like). P6: Probability that anybody in the best of futures, will be interested, resourceful, and nice enough to use the technology on you. P7: Probability that you'll then be allowed to live a live that would be more acceptable to you than being dead. ------------------- Although P1 above hints at it, based on earlier remarks by Mike Darwin (if I recall correctly), the factor that is noticeably absent and should probably replace P1 is: Probobility that you'll receive a proper suspension after deanimating. Mike (and Charles Platt, I believe, agreed) observed that a great many members don't get good suspensions or suspensions at all because they "die" and are not found soon enough, or suffer extensive head injuries, or develop some type of dementia, or legal difficutlies prevent a timely suspension, etc. The set of all things that can prevent one from getting a good suspension is likely the single greatest obstacle to cryonicists making it into the future. (that set includes "not being signed up", by the way) Because making it to the future is my primary goal, I have become more risk averse and more concerned with my health. I drive less often and more carefully, I don't jump out of planes any more, I get check-ups, etc. I'm not manic about it but I'm definitely more careful because I intend to make it. Taken to it's logical but absurd conclusion, I realize that this means I should make arrangements for deanimation and suspension as soon as possible in order to avoid most of the elements that comprise the set of obstacles in P1. Of course, the cryonics organizations can neither participate in nor condone such action and rightly so. I also have no plans to make such arrangements and do not condone this action. But I can't say how I'll feel when I'm 80 or so and antiaging technologies haven't matured. Or how I'll feel if I'm diagnosed with Alzheimer's. What to do then? Best regards, Scott "Vita Perpetua" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search Thousands of New Jobs http://www.hotjobs.com Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19749