X-Message-Number: 19773 Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2002 17:03:28 -0700 (PDT) From: Michael Hartl <> Subject: Future probabilities Hello Thomas, > No, the validity of ANY means for predicting future > probability is false. There's a lot of confusion on CryoNet on this point. I'll do my best to clarify. Future events are uncertain, and probabilities allow us to quantify our uncertainty. Such probabilities are meaningful. Was it really invalid to assign a probability to the Lakers beating the Nets in the NBA finals -- as every Vegas oddsmaker did? Suppose that the Lakers are playing your local high school basketball team. That's a future event; is it really invalid to assign a probability to a Lakers win? With games of chance such as craps or blackjack, there is a rigorous method to determine probabilities. With the potential success of cryonics, and other more complicated future events, the methods are not as clear. As Robert Ettinger noted, the very notion of *the* probability is ill-defined. In cryonics, as in sports, it depends on whom you ask. Nevertheless, it is still meaningful -- and potentially valuable -- to make estimates. Uncertain, subjective probabilities are not the same as "invalid", "useless", or "meaningless" probabilities. Of course, if you really think such estimates are meaningless, you are welcome to bet on your local high school basketball team to beat the Lakers. I'll take that bet any day. -Michael, who will probably not succeed in convincing everyone that estimating future probabilities makes sense. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? HotJobs - Search Thousands of New Jobs http://www.hotjobs.com Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19773