X-Message-Number: 19826 Date: Sun, 18 Aug 2002 08:11:13 -0400 From: Thomas Donaldson <> Subject: CryoNet #19821 - #19824 Hi everyone! For Bob Ettinger: While it is true that Haftka reached an absurd conclusion, it's not at all clear to me that he was joking. Basically he was following the same method you suggested for working out the probability of success of cryonics. It's just that he chose an inappropriate class of events in which to judge that probability. Which gets us into an obvious question for you. OK, so when an event hasn't happened, we can try to work out its probability by putting it in a class of events many of which HAVE happened, and work out its probability that way. But clearly we can't use just any class of events, as Haftka just showed. So we need more information about how to properly choose the class of events we're going to use, or --- as Haftka's note has shown --- we become lost among the various choices, some of which say yes and others of which say impossible. Best wishes and long long life for all, Thomas Donaldson Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19826