X-Message-Number: 19868
From: "Brook Norton" <>
Subject: philosophy of the cryonics probability spreadsheet
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2002 06:25:17 -0700

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In Message #19862, Steve Harris addresses Ralph Merkle regarding
estimating the odds of cryonics working. I'm in agreement regarding
being able to define your inputs so that they are independent.  Also,
Thomas Donaldson also often points out that you can not do a prediction
because you can affect the future, to which I reply, estimate the odds
of a future event "given" you will try to promote cryonics.
As further encouragement for cryonicists to try the spreadsheet,
consider the following.  Regarding the odds of society developing
advanced nanotechnology as required for recovery....  The spreadsheet
allows you to input, for example, in 25 years there is a 5% chance the
technology will be here, in 50 years a 25% chance , in 75 years a 50%
chance, in 100 years a 75% chance and in 150 years a 90% chance ("given"
mankind does not destroy itself, which accounted for elsewhere).
So you see in this example, even in 25 years there is some chance that
you can be recovered.  The spreadsheet calculates, based on your inputs,
the odds that you will still be frozen in 25, 50, 75, 100, 200 years (or
whatever time intervals you choose).  The odds of remaining frozen in 25
years are very good, falling off over the decades as the odds of fire,
bankruptcy, etc, whittle away your odds of remaining frozen for a very
long time.  So as the odds of developing the technology rises over the
years, and the odds of remaining frozen decrease.  The spreadsheet takes
these trends and calculates the odds of being recovered in each time
interval.  Then the integral of revival over all time intervals is taken
to show the overall odds of ever being recovered.
The spreadsheet is designed to be user friendly for inputting data and
viewing the plotted results.  If any others are interested in getting a
copy of the spreadsheet, email me at  <mailto:>



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