X-Message-Number: 19884
Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2002 17:13:50 -0400
From: 
Subject: GIGO (was "philosophy of cryonics probability spreadsheet")

Guesswork in; guesswork out.

Brook Norton wrote:
>The spreadsheet
>allows you to input, for example, in 25 years there is a 5% chance the
>technology will be here, in 50 years a 25% chance , in 75 years a 50%
>chance, in 100 years a 75% chance and in 150 years a 90% chance ("given"
>mankind does not destroy itself, which accounted for elsewhere).
>
>So you see in this example, even in 25 years there is some chance that
>you can be recovered.  The spreadsheet calculates, based on your inputs,
>the odds that you will still be frozen in 25, 50, 75, 100, 200 years (or
>whatever time intervals you choose).

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