X-Message-Number: 19886
From: "Brook Norton" <>
Subject: cryonics spreadsheet shows a 51% chance of success
Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2002 21:02:40 -0700

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In message #19872, Jeff Soreff says
"In my own position, cryonics looks sensible to me if the odds of
success are better than about 1% (from, roughly speaking, comparing a
year's vacation with the net present value of an indefinitely long
future, discounted at 1%/year). My estimates of the odds of being
revived tend to come out in the 2%-10% range (with huge error bars, of
course). If I thought the odds were ~>50% I'd be much more actively
trying to persuade friends and family members. If I thought the odds
were well below a chance in a thousand I wouldn't have signed up."
Jeff, I have constructed a spreadsheet that allows user inputs of the
odds of various trends occurring that affect cryonic restoration such as
the timeframe for nanotechnology and the odds of a facility fire,
bankruptcy, etc (where care is given to state the odds in a manner such
that inputs remain independent).  When I input my opinion of the odds, I
get a 51% chance of success (I entered all my inputs prior to seeing the
final answer, so I did not tune my inputs to get 51%).
A large driver is when you think mature, affordable nanotechnology will
be available.  I input a 20% chance in 70 years, a 75% chance in 130
years, and a 99% chance in 190 years.
If you or anyone else would like to try out your own inputs, contact me
at  <mailto:>  and
I'll email you the user friendly spreadsheet (I virus check all my
outgoing email).  The equation derivations are included for completeness
for those who wish to inspect them.
Brook Norton


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