X-Message-Number: 19886 From: "Brook Norton" <> Subject: cryonics spreadsheet shows a 51% chance of success Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2002 21:02:40 -0700 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C24AE8.6BD6C2E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In message #19872, Jeff Soreff says "In my own position, cryonics looks sensible to me if the odds of success are better than about 1% (from, roughly speaking, comparing a year's vacation with the net present value of an indefinitely long future, discounted at 1%/year). My estimates of the odds of being revived tend to come out in the 2%-10% range (with huge error bars, of course). If I thought the odds were ~>50% I'd be much more actively trying to persuade friends and family members. If I thought the odds were well below a chance in a thousand I wouldn't have signed up." Jeff, I have constructed a spreadsheet that allows user inputs of the odds of various trends occurring that affect cryonic restoration such as the timeframe for nanotechnology and the odds of a facility fire, bankruptcy, etc (where care is given to state the odds in a manner such that inputs remain independent). When I input my opinion of the odds, I get a 51% chance of success (I entered all my inputs prior to seeing the final answer, so I did not tune my inputs to get 51%). A large driver is when you think mature, affordable nanotechnology will be available. I input a 20% chance in 70 years, a 75% chance in 130 years, and a 99% chance in 190 years. If you or anyone else would like to try out your own inputs, contact me at <mailto:> and I'll email you the user friendly spreadsheet (I virus check all my outgoing email). The equation derivations are included for completeness for those who wish to inspect them. Brook Norton ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C24AE8.6BD6C2E0 Content-Type: text/html; [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19886