X-Message-Number: 19892
Date: Fri, 23 Aug 2002 09:07:38 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: CryoNet #19868 - #19876

For calculation of probabilities in cryonics:

Yes, we can set up spreadsheets to do almost anything, but whether or
not what they do has any serious meaning is another question. 

So let's suppose that we are trying to calculate the probability of
success for cryonics given that we ourselves are pushing for that
success. In other words, we want to know whether our efforts will
work. In too many cases I note a difference of opinion on just that
point; not only that, but the existence of more than one society
suggests that such differences of opinion run deep. Such a situation
basically tells us that nobody really KNOWS the effect of their
actions, and thus a major component of any calculation of probabilities
is missing. The calculation falls apart.... even if it LOOKS
very impressive.

		Best wishes and long long life for all,

			Thomas Donaldson

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