X-Message-Number: 19943
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 2002 12:12:27 -0400 (EDT)
From: Charles Platt <>
Subject: most likely scenario

I notice that the thread about probabilities still survives, with no
mention of regulatory interference.

I pointed out in a previous post that regulation is possible.

Really I should have said that it's inevitable. We've all seen the
Internet gradually become regulated. Who could claim that cryonics will be
exempt? It is in the nature of regulators to regulate anything that isn't

Since I believe that full-scale medical-style federal regulation would put
all existing cryonics organizations out of business by making the
procedure uneconomic, I'd include the possibility of regulation as one of
my biggest factors threatening the future survival of cryopatients in
general, and me in particular.

We can of course learn from other people's experience. Generally the only
industries that slip through the net are those that regulate themselves
before they can be regulated. Hang-gliding is one example. The US Hang
Gliding Association saw what was coming, and imposed its own rules before
much worse rules could be imposed, which would have killed the sport. (I
think I mentioned this example on CryoNet about 8 years ago.)

Unfortunately, cryonicists have rather a poor record for acting
collectively. The idea of an industry-wide association to set standards
and enforce them has been proposed from time to time for more than three
decades but has never gone anywhere. I gather another such proposal was
made at the Cryosummit.

Do any probability experts wish to predict the chance of a standards body
coming into being during the next decade or so? I would put it at zero.


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