X-Message-Number: 19957 Date: Sat, 31 Aug 2002 10:49:02 -0700 (PDT) From: Randall Burns <> Subject: Re: Probabilities Robert Ettinger wrote: >A probability is the relative frequency of occurrence >of an event in a recorded sequence of experiments >or observations. This is what insurance companies do in creating actuarial tables. Still, this is only part of what insurance companies do to estimate probabilities. You can buy insurance policies on all kinds of events that rarely occur. These are ulimately underwritten by "betting pools" of wealthy individuals(which is what Lloyds of London amounts to in the final analysis. Demonstration of that technique in a non-monetary context can be seen at www.ideosphere.com The other major technique that has a substantial academic literature associated with it is the "Delphi Method" pioneered at Rand Corporation. Neither of this techniques is perfect, but some forecasts constructed this way would carry more weight than the individual analysis I've seen so far. The real question here: what kinds of things can be as individuals do that can increase our life expectency dramatically? For individuals of substantial wealth and power there is obviously a much wider range of options here. I personally suspect though that life extension technology will not be allowed unless accompanied by subsantial improvements in technology to expand the range of human habitat(i.e. space migration) and increase of human intelligence. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Finance - Get real-time stock quotes http://finance.yahoo.com Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=19957