X-Message-Number: 20213
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: Re: The non-inevitability of progress 
Date: Sun, 29 Sep 2002 14:53:44 -0700

In Message #20206, Ron Havelock writes:

>I can agree with Mark Plus that progress is a herky-jerky affair which is 
>unpredictable in specifics, e.g. the 50 year lag in expectations of
controlled fusion power, but disagree strongly on the main point of
inevitability.  Progress in all fields of knowledge and its technological 
applications, e.g. to life extension and enhancement, is absolutely 
inevitable in the long run, even if humans do a lot of stupid and regressive 
things along the way, such as barring this or that kind of research.  These 
actions as well as catastrophies of various kinds can slow things down, but 
the general trend is obvious.  We never really go backward; we don't unlearn 
what is once learned.  Furthermore, the progressive trend has accelerated 
tremendously over the last 3 or 4 centuries and most obviously also in the 
latter half of the twentieth century.

Unfortunately, technical knowledge can be lost, sometimes for centuries. The 
Romans built impressive structures with concrete, but after the fall of the 
western empire, the knowledge for making Roman-style concrete was forgotten 
until the recipe was independently rediscovered in the 19th Century.

More to the point, however: Because of the success of the wealth revolution 
in the U.S., our society has moved well away from an  engagement with 
nonhuman reality, characterized by mining, farming, manufacturing, building, 
etc., where the majority of people were disciplined by the tangible 
consequences of their efforts. Now we spend our lives playing postindustrial 
"games between persons," as sociologist Daniel Bell characterizes them. In 
such an environment, where skill at hominid politics matters more than 
getting physical reality to do what you want, scientific & technological 
knowledge will be devalued.

That's why the science & engineering departments at American universities 
are full of foreign & immigrant students who grew up in exiguous 
environments. The smarter & more energetic American students tend to enter 
parasitic professions like law, where you practically have a license to 
confiscate wealth accumulated by others if you play the game skillfully. The 
change in economic incentives in this country makes the sustainability of 
progress less of a sure thing than it seemed 30-40 years ago.

Mark Plus
It's not "religious" or "science fictional" if you can do it.

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