X-Message-Number: 20833
From: "michaelprice" <>
References: <>
Subject: Law of Accelerating Returns
Date: Sun, 12 Jan 2003 11:42:07 -0000

Yvan:

> I see nothing really new in the past 30 years...

considering just physics :-)
inflationary cosmology
superstring/brane theory
cosmological constant
neutrino mass

> There are less and less [sic: fewer and fewer] engineers in 
> schools, science budget are on the down in most countries, 
> space is over, biology is limited by religions or becomes
> a sect gadget. If you see accelerated progress, please tell me what you
> smoke. :-((

Have a look at the Kurzweil site for a Singularity progress report:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=1%23451
in particular note the rising calculations per second per dollar rate (sort
of super-Moore's Law) which approximates

10exp(-14 + 6 x ((3.4)exp(-19 + t/100)))

based on 49 data points spanning a century.  t is years ACE or AD.
Cheap superAIs within 30 years.

Cheers,
Michael C Price
----------------------------------------
http://mcp.longevity-report.com
http://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm

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