X-Message-Number: 21481
Date: Thu, 27 Mar 2003 02:41:12 -0500 (EST)
From: Charles Platt <>
Subject: SARS update

I have been following the SARS numbers on the World Health Organization
web site and have been noting the increase worldwide, and in Hong Kong,
and in the United States. W.H.O. posts the numbers daily except Sundays.
The US numbers are questionable because, so far as I can determine, the
criteria for a suspected case are looser here. The world numbers jumped by
almost 800 today because China finally admitted its prior case load; since
China's cases were not included previously I have not included them in my
tabulation of daily increases.

Since W.H.O. started logging cases on March 17, the number of additional
cases per day has remained relatively stable. In other words the total
number of cases has grown more-or-less linearly, not in the exponential
way that would indicate that the virus has escaped unchecked into the
community. On March 19,20,21 the number of new cases per day worldwide
averaged 44; in Hong Kong, 27. On March 23,24,25 the number of new cases
per day worldwide averaged 34, in Hong Kong 22. Thus during that short
period of about a week, the rate of increase actually diminished. Today
the increase in Hong Kong and worldwide was up again, but data for a
single day are not meaningful when the numbers are so small and we have no
idea how cases are being assessed or reported.

Theories about the transmission and the mechanism of the virus (if it is a
virus) are contradictory and confusing, with W.H.O. actually postulating
that two viruses must both be active concurrently to create the severest
symptoms--a theory which C.D.C. in Atlanta does not embrace. Clearly no
one really knows anything for sure except that Ribavirin probably
mitigates the symptoms, face masks are helpful if they fit properly, and
the N100 is the mask of choice.

The SARS story attracted extra media attention today, for reasons that are
unclear. Personally I find the case numbers relatively reassuring so far,
but I wonder what will happen when the panic level in Hong Kong increases
to the point where many people will flee to "safe havens" (probably
including the USA), thus bringing the virus with them. A friend suggests
that instead of checking people for knives and nail files at airport
security, we should be checking their body temperature (which can be done
easily and almost instantly via the ear drum).

Another friend remarked to me that it might be best to get infected as
soon as possible, while cases are still relatively rare in the USA and
hospitals have not yet been overwhelmed. That's a cheerful thought.
Another friend (a longtime cryonicist) had made previous plans to visit
Hong Kong and seems to be proceeding with the plans regardless. Yet
another friend is prepared for six months of total isolation if necessary.
Different personality types; different responses. This suggests that a
"rational" response is not possible at this time.

Alcor has ordered a moderate stock of N100 face masks as previously noted.

--CP

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