X-Message-Number: 21976
From: "Spoering" <>
Subject: In Defense Of Mark Plus
Date: Sat, 14 Jun 2003 11:57:28 -0500

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Greetings Everyone,

Two or three of you out there have criticized Mark for being one of those people
who is

yelling "the sky is falling" when in fact it may be doing just that. A year or 
two ago I read 

the book "HUBBERT'S PEAK" by Kenneth Deffeyes. In this volume Deffeyes writes at

lenght of the geophysicist M. Hubbert who predicted in 1956 that the United 
States will peak 

in oil production in the early seventies, the actual peak was 1970, quit an 
amazing prediction

in my humble opinion. In this book Deffeyes performs analysis similar to 
Hubbert's and applies

it to world oil production and come to the conclusion that conventional oil will
peak 2004-2009.

Several others have came to similar conclusions. I personally believe that C.J. 
Campbell has the

best prediction, he gives the peak at 2010-2020, taking into account current 
unused  production

capacity and possible deep water drilling success. In addtion, oil discoveries 
are NOT keeping

pace with the downdraw of current reserves, not by a long shot, from what I have
read in several 

places. I have NO vested interest in this subject, I am just a concerned citizen
looking into the 

long term consequences of all of this, both from a personal and worldwide 
standpoint, and to

not realize we may be on the verge of a serious situation is just putting ones 
head in the sand 
and ignoring the facts.  

If all of the above is not bad enough consider reading the two following books, 

AHEAD by Daniel Arnold, and THE RETIREMENT MYTH by Craig Karpel. Both of these 

warn of possible hard economic times ahead due to the massive United States post
World War 2 

generation retiring soon and spending much less, sending the economy reeling. A 
person simply 

has to come to his/her own conclusions on their own, after arming themselves 
with the 

appropriate facts. I did read years ago that a 'think tank' somewhere came to 
the conclusion that

the standard of living in the United States in the year 2050 will be only 
marginally better than

the standard of living in China today, The reason: depletion of oil! What will 
this entail for cryonics.

Probably not much, except that progress in all fronts may slow down and fewer 
people out there

who could afford cryonics. Thank you Mark Plus for your interesting notes over 
the past several 

Best Regards......Kevin Spoering



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