X-Message-Number: 2204
Date: 05 May 93 03:20:40 EDT
From: Michael Riskin <>
Subject: CRYONICS: RE: B.Wowks Cost Analysis

Dear Brian,
     In your analysis / comparison  of current storage costs in dewars vs.
cold room , you chose to base the comparison solely on whole body
suspensions.  I will take it as correct that the cold room capacity is
100 whole bodies. However, at Alcor, the current ratio of neuro to whole
body suspensions is 1.7 to 1.0.   The yearly cost of neuro storage is
significantly less than whole bodies (the analysis of such may show the
neuro cost to be approximately 1/3 that of wb's). Therefore, comparing
coldroom yearly costs of $15,000  to costs of 80,000 ( when 100 whole 
bodies are suspended , per your example) should realistically be
comparing $15,000 to perhaps $35,000 ( When Alcor has 100 patients, at the
current ratios, that equates to 63 neuros and 37 wb's). (And of course,
that will require averaging 7 suspensions per year for ten years, a
possible figure, but of course much higher than  currently occuring).  
The then yearly storage costs of $35,000 is high, because the dewars are
being amortized over 15 years as a conservative estimate, when in
reality, some knowledgable people questimate that the dewars could last
50 to 100 years.And , of course, these dewars are paid for.  Unless a lot
of members start deanimating , it will be quite a while before even close
to $150,000 in new dewars is necessary, especially if the current neuro
to wb ratio continues. (9 neuros fit in one neuro dewar).  When you
add the cost of financing $150,000 (which could of course be
much higher depending on the unknown labor factor  and the screwup factor
for coldroom number ONE) we have, at 7%, $10500/YR additional expense.
There may in fact, be very little or no financial advantage for
along time to come. In addition, $150,000 or more,  plus lots of
technical and administrative effort, needs to be weighed  against its'
lost opportunity equivalent (research, facility, suspension
readiness.....).
     It is also possible that the coldroom, upon further design
refinement, be less costly that estimated...and a much smaller initial
coldroom, therefore less costly , could be built. It is also possible
that the 15 year amortization for the coldroom is similiarly
conservative, further reducing the yearly cost.
    It is not yet obvious that economies will occur in the short term (5
to 10 years) through use of coldrooms. It appears to me that the decision
for the construction of a coldroom  should be based on the technical
superiority of patient storage for successful future reanimation over
current methods of storage, to justify a large up front capital
expenditure, with no apparant offset in reduced operating costs.

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