X-Message-Number: 22209
From: 
Date: Wed, 16 Jul 2003 08:42:42 EDT
Subject: How long a shot?

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Steve Harris writes in part:

> Do we admit to ourselves how long a long-shot it all really is?
> Generally, no.

I'm not sure where his numbers come from--either as to how many cryonicists 
think it is a very long shot, or as to why he thinks it is a very long shot. 

As to the former, my own impression (not very scientific) is that most of 
those who talk much about it say it is a long shot.

As to the latter, I have a discussion of the odds on the CI web site. (The 
Probability of Revival) My conclusion is that the odds are favorable (assuming 
the survival of civilization) even for most of those already frozen, and of 
course better for those frozen or vitrified later by better methods. Doubtless 
many will consider it unpersuasive, but I have never seen an attempted 
refutation of it worthy of the name.

Robert Ettinger
Cryonics Institute
Immortalist Society
www.cryonics.org

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