X-Message-Number: 22250
Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2003 07:20:12 -0400
From: Thomas Donaldson <>
Subject: CryoNet #22208 - #22215

Once more, about the probability that cryonics will succeed (or not):

It is quite simply invalid to consider probability in a case in which
the speaker can do something to affect the outcome. I note that 
many of those talking about the probability of the failure of 
cryonics are exactly those who are working to make it succeed ---
at least those on Cryonet. 

If we are playing a game with dice, and you know that I have
means of affecting the way those dice fall, then just what weight
do you attach to any claim of mine, say, that a pair of 1's are
quite unlikely? 

But that image presupposes that we are all solely audience, while
others are busily trying to change the roll of the dice. What's
really happening is that we're all doing our best to make it 
come up as we want, "improbable" as that may be. Even by signing
up and paying dues to a cryonics organization you are doing your
small bit towards making cryonics succeed.

             Best wishes and long long life for all,

                  Thomas Donaldson

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