X-Message-Number: 22527
From: "Mark Plus" <>
Subject: SciAm: Remember the Six Billion   
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2003 09:10:57 -0700



http://www.sciam.com/print_version.cfm?articleID=0001AF03-A8B1-1F57-905980A84189EEDF

September 15, 2003

Remember the Six Billion

For millennia we have raged against the dying of the light. Can science save 
us from that good night?

By Michael Shermer

Between now and the year 2123 a tragedy of Brobdingnagian proportions will 
befall humanity, causing the death of more than six billion people. I'm 
serious.
According to Carl Haub, a demographer at the Population Reference Bureau in 
Washington, D.C., between 50,000 B.C. and A.D. 2002, about 106 billion 
people were born. Earth's population is currently around 6.3 billion. Of the 
approximately 100 billion people born before us, every one has died. To the 
extent that the past is the key to the future, that means that within the 
next 120 years (today's maximum life span), more than six billion humans 
will suffer the same fate. And there is not a damn thing we can do about it. 
Or is there?

For most of our history, humans could turn only to prayer and poetry to help 
cope with this reality. Today we are offered scientistic alternatives--if 
not for immortality itself, then at least for longevity of biblical 
proportions. All have some basis in science, but none has achieved anything 
like scientific confirmation. Here is a short sampling, from the almost 
sublime to the near ridiculous:

Virtual immortality. According to Tulane University physicist Frank J. 
Tipler, in the far future we will all be resurrected in a virtual reality 
whose memory capacity is 10 to the 10123 bytes. If the virtual reality were 
good enough, it would be indistinguishable from our everyday experience. 
Boot me up, Scotty. One problem, among many, is that Tipler's resurrection 
machine requires so much energy that the universe must one day collapse, 
which present data show is not going to happen.



In the next 120 years, six billion people will die.

Genetic immortality. Oh, those pesky telomeres at the ends of chromosomes 
that prevent cells from replicating indefinitely. If only we could 
genetically reprogram normal cells to be like cancer cells. Alas, this is no 
solution, because biological systems are so complex that fixing any one 
component does not address all the others that play a role in aging.

Cryonics immortality. Freeze. Wait. Reanimate. It sounds good in theory, but 
you're still a corpsicle. And when your tissue is thawed, your cells will be 
mush. Don't forget to pay the electric bill in the meantime.

Replacement immortality. First we replace our organs (which today are often 
rejected), then our cells and molecules nano-a-nano (not yet technologically 
feasible), eventually exchanging flesh for something more durable, such as 
silicon. You can't tell the difference, can you?

Lifestyle longevity. Because this is a goal we can try to implement today, 
the hucksters are out in force offering all manner of elixirs to extend 
life. To cut to the chase, S. Jay Olshansky, Leonard Hayflick and Bruce A. 
Carnes, three leading experts on aging research, have stated unequivocally 
in the pages of this magazine that "no currently marketed 
intervention--none--has yet been proved to slow, stop or reverse human 
aging, and some can be downright dangerous" ["No Truth to the Fountain of 
Youth," Scientific American; June 2002].

It has never been satisfactorily demonstrated, for example, that 
antioxidants--taken as supplements to counter the deleterious effects of 
free radicals on cells--attenuate aging. In fact, free radicals are 
necessary for cellular physiology. Hormone replacement therapy, another 
popular antiaging nostrum, helps to counter short-term problems such as loss 
of muscle mass and strength in older men and postmenopausal women. But the 
therapy's influence on the aging process is unproved, and the long-term 
negative side effects are unknown.

As a lifelong cyclist, I am pleased to report that proper diet and 
sufficient exercise are tried-and-true methods of increasing the length of 
your life. These, along with modern medical technologies and sanitation 
practices, have nearly doubled the average lifetime over the past century. 
Unfortunately, this just means that more of us will get closer to the outer 
wall of 120 years before inexorably succumbing to the way of all flesh.

As 20th-century English poet Dylan Thomas classically admonished, "Do not go 
gentle into that good night .../Rage, rage against the dying of the light." 
Rage all you like, but remember the six billion--and the 100 billion before. 
Until science finds a solution to prolonging the duration of healthy life, 
we should instead rave about the time we have, however fleeting.



Michael Shermer is publisher of Skeptic (www.skeptic.com) and author of How 
We Believe.

_________________________________________________________________
Fast, faster, fastest: Upgrade to Cable or DSL today!   
https://broadband.msn.com

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=22527