X-Message-Number: 22773
Date: Wed, 05 Nov 2003 10:46:04 -0800
From: James Swayze <>
Subject: More for the population debate

[begin quoted material]

Savvy Investor e-Newsletter

Weekly, November 3, 2003 (3 month complimentary subscription)

Weekly Feature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


The U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, criticized Chinas policy of 
pegging its currency to the dollar last Thursday, but angered Congress 
by stopping short of issuing a formal finding that the Chinese 
government manipulated the exchange value of the Yuan to gain market 
advantage. While the Treasury acknowledged that Beijing uses a fixed 
exchange rate, it concluded that such a policy by itself does not meet 
the statutory definition of currency manipulation.

It is nothing new that Chinas economic policies are under increasing 
attack from the U.S. and other rich, G-7 countries. However, China can 
console itself with the fact that within half a century, not only is its 
economy likely to be bigger than any of the G-7 economies, but most of 
the current G-7 members are unlikely to be eligible to attend meetings 
of the worlds biggest economies. For China is not the only economy 
moving up the global pecking order.

A new study published by Goldman Sachs focuses on the so-called BRIC 
(Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies. At current exchange rates, 
their combined GDP equals just over 15% of the total output of the G-7. 
But the study concludes that the total output of the four BRIC economies 
will overtake that of the G-7 in less than 40 years. Of todays G-7, only 
America and Japan would then still be among the worlds seven biggest 

This prediction is not based on a crude extrapolation of growth rates. 
Instead, the authors make assumptions about population growth, the pace 
of direct investment, productivity growth, and currency movements. These 
imply that, so long as the BRICs stick with sensible economic policies, 
their future growth rates, as measured by GDP, will rise significantly.

China is tipped to overtake Germany by 2007, Japan by 2015 and America 
by 2041. Indias GDP could overtake Japan by 2032. All four BRICs will be 
bigger than any western European economy, due to their aging workforce 
and low birth rates, by 2036. For firms looking where to invest, the 
most shocking result is that, by 2009, the annual increase in total 
dollar spending in the BRICs could be greater than that in the G-7. By 
2025, spending could be increasing twice as fast in the BRICs.

Such long-term forecasts are almost bound to be overstated, not least 
because governments may make mistakes or political instability may 
intervene. Look at the Yukos Petroleum crisis in Russia, for example. 
Even so, against a backdrop of currency pegs and trade protectionism, 
this report is a useful framework for understanding the rise of future 
global economic giants.

[end quoted material]

It seems to me then, that the answer for G-7 nations staying ahead is 
continued and unencumbered development of ultra high tech and especially 
life extension technologies in order to keep an already-invested-in work 
force working rather than spending even more to replace it. Or, perhaps 
the bombs of future wars will be sterilization bombs. Maybe acquiring 
first world wealth will slow the population growth of the BRIC countries 
and counter balance the trend but one must take into account deep seated 
religious values that either forbid contraception or believe there are 
deity given blessings for producing large families.


Cryonics Institute of Michigan 	http://www.cryonics.org
The Immortalist Society 	http://www.cryonics.org/info.html
The Society for Venturism 	http://www.venturist.org
Immortality Institute 		http://www.imminst.org

MY WEBSITE: http://www.davidpascal.com/swayze/

Signature Memetic Virus--The worst enemy of those who now or will need medical 
care is the uninformed politician or moral fanatic who proscribe what doctors 
are allowed to prescribe and research, with the consent of their patients. Those
who understand this are strongly encouraged to modify this to fit their 
personality, and add this to their signature file, and organize to recover our 
freedom from Big Brother. For those who wait until they are sick, it will be too
late. Those who suffer from diseases which might have been cured by advanced 
medical research or schedule 1 drugs banned by Big Brother, have the right to 
hold accountable those who sat on their hands or worse, deferred their 
responsibility for personal and humanity's survival to unseen mystical agents, 
while they remained ill and dying.

Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=22773