X-Message-Number: 22773 Date: Wed, 05 Nov 2003 10:46:04 -0800 From: James Swayze <> Subject: More for the population debate [begin quoted material] Savvy Investor e-Newsletter Weekly, November 3, 2003 (3 month complimentary subscription) Weekly Feature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . THICK AS A BRIC...A PEEK INTO THE FUTURE The U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, criticized Chinas policy of pegging its currency to the dollar last Thursday, but angered Congress by stopping short of issuing a formal finding that the Chinese government manipulated the exchange value of the Yuan to gain market advantage. While the Treasury acknowledged that Beijing uses a fixed exchange rate, it concluded that such a policy by itself does not meet the statutory definition of currency manipulation. It is nothing new that Chinas economic policies are under increasing attack from the U.S. and other rich, G-7 countries. However, China can console itself with the fact that within half a century, not only is its economy likely to be bigger than any of the G-7 economies, but most of the current G-7 members are unlikely to be eligible to attend meetings of the worlds biggest economies. For China is not the only economy moving up the global pecking order. A new study published by Goldman Sachs focuses on the so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies. At current exchange rates, their combined GDP equals just over 15% of the total output of the G-7. But the study concludes that the total output of the four BRIC economies will overtake that of the G-7 in less than 40 years. Of todays G-7, only America and Japan would then still be among the worlds seven biggest economies. This prediction is not based on a crude extrapolation of growth rates. Instead, the authors make assumptions about population growth, the pace of direct investment, productivity growth, and currency movements. These imply that, so long as the BRICs stick with sensible economic policies, their future growth rates, as measured by GDP, will rise significantly. China is tipped to overtake Germany by 2007, Japan by 2015 and America by 2041. Indias GDP could overtake Japan by 2032. All four BRICs will be bigger than any western European economy, due to their aging workforce and low birth rates, by 2036. For firms looking where to invest, the most shocking result is that, by 2009, the annual increase in total dollar spending in the BRICs could be greater than that in the G-7. By 2025, spending could be increasing twice as fast in the BRICs. Such long-term forecasts are almost bound to be overstated, not least because governments may make mistakes or political instability may intervene. Look at the Yukos Petroleum crisis in Russia, for example. Even so, against a backdrop of currency pegs and trade protectionism, this report is a useful framework for understanding the rise of future global economic giants. [end quoted material] It seems to me then, that the answer for G-7 nations staying ahead is continued and unencumbered development of ultra high tech and especially life extension technologies in order to keep an already-invested-in work force working rather than spending even more to replace it. Or, perhaps the bombs of future wars will be sterilization bombs. Maybe acquiring first world wealth will slow the population growth of the BRIC countries and counter balance the trend but one must take into account deep seated religious values that either forbid contraception or believe there are deity given blessings for producing large families. James -- Member: Cryonics Institute of Michigan http://www.cryonics.org The Immortalist Society http://www.cryonics.org/info.html The Society for Venturism http://www.venturist.org Immortality Institute http://www.imminst.org MY WEBSITE: http://www.davidpascal.com/swayze/ Signature Memetic Virus--The worst enemy of those who now or will need medical care is the uninformed politician or moral fanatic who proscribe what doctors are allowed to prescribe and research, with the consent of their patients. Those who understand this are strongly encouraged to modify this to fit their personality, and add this to their signature file, and organize to recover our freedom from Big Brother. For those who wait until they are sick, it will be too late. Those who suffer from diseases which might have been cured by advanced medical research or schedule 1 drugs banned by Big Brother, have the right to hold accountable those who sat on their hands or worse, deferred their responsibility for personal and humanity's survival to unseen mystical agents, while they remained ill and dying. Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=22773